How James Harden Opting In Would Alter The Sixers’ Offseason Plans

Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden has less than three weeks to decide whether to pick up his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 NBA season or decline it and become an unrestricted free agent this summer.

We’ve already covered why the Sixers should hope he opts out and re-signs for less than his $46.5 million maximum salary as a free agent. His doing so could enable them to have access to the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and $4.1 million bi-annual exception in free agency rather than only the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE and veteran-minimum contracts. It would also reduce the long-term uncertainty surrounding their core, which could make them more attractive to free-agent targets.

But what if Harden decides to opt in, as he reportedly planned to do as a condition of the blockbuster trade that brought him to Philadelphia in February? Shams Charania of The Athletic originally reported that Harden did pick up his option when he got traded, although he later clarified that “the paperwork was filed, but they did not meet the buzzer for the opt-in” (h/t Scott Polacek of Bleacher Report).

If Harden does opt in, that would likely force the Sixers to pivot away from the non-taxpayer MLE and instead consider other ways to upgrade their roster this offseason.

The Sixers currently have $96.1 million committed to 11 players next season, and the No. 23 pick will have a cap hit of $2.5 million if they use it on someone whom they plan to roster (i.e., not a draft-and-stash player). The salary-cap and luxury-tax thresholds are projected to come in at $122 million and $149 million, respectively.

If the Sixers don’t trade the No. 23 pick and don’t use it on a draft-and-stash player, they’d have $98.6 million committed to 12 players. Add in Harden’s $47.4 million player option, and they’d be at roughly $146 million with two roster spots to fill.

From there, they’d have to be mindful of the luxury-tax apron, which is projected to be just south of $155.7 million. Teams that use the non-taxpayer MLE, the bi-annual exception or receive a player in a sign-and-trade get hard-capped, which means they cannot exceed the apron at any point during that league year.

Even if Harden picks up his option, the Sixers would be roughly $9.7 million under the apron. They would be able to spend nearly all of the non-taxpayer MLE before bumping into the apron, but being hard-capped would reduce their flexibility to make in-season moves.

Instead, it would behoove the Sixers to spend no more than $6.4 million of their mid-level exception (the amount of the taxpayer MLE), thus avoiding the hard cap. That would enable them to take on more salary than they send out in a midseason trade if needed, and they could always spend the remaining portion of their MLE if no such deal materialized.

The bigger question is whether they’d consider salary-dumping some of their smaller contracts—particularly Furkan Korkmaz’s $5 million salary—to free up access to the non-taxpayer MLE and bi-annual exception. Dumping Korkmaz would leave them nearly $14.7 million under the apron with 12 players under contract, so they would have just enough wiggle room to spend both exceptions to fill out their roster.

The better route might be guaranteeing Danny Green’s $10 million salary even though he suffered a torn ACL and LCL in their Game 6 closeout loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. It’s unclear when he’ll be able to return, but he figures to miss at least a majority of the 2022-23 season.

The Sixers have until July 1 to decide whether to guarantee Green’s salary or waive him. If they trade him before guaranteeing his contract, he’d count as $0 in outgoing salary. But if they guarantee his salary, he’d count as the full $10 million, which could allow them to bring in a larger contract via trade.

Since the Sixers would be over the luxury-tax threshold in this scenario, they couldn’t take back more than 125 percent of the salary they sent out, plus $100,000. Unless they traded one of Harden, Joel Embiid (not happening) or Tobias Harris (good luck!), Korkmaz and Matisse Thybulle ($4.4 million) are their two biggest remaining salaries. Even if they packaged those two together, they could receive no more than $11.8 million in a trade.

Green’s contract could be the key to a larger deal. Packaging him with Korkmaz would allow them to receive $18.85 million of salary in a trade, while packaging him with Thybulle would allow them to receive nearly $18.1 million. If they had a target in that range in mind—Joe Harris? Harrison Barnes? Bogdan Bogdanovic? Will Barton?—guaranteeing Green’s salary and packaging him with Korkmaz or Thybulle would be the cleanest way to pull off such a deal.

The Sixers would also have to weigh how to handle Harden’s extension negotiations if he opts in. He’d become eligible for a four-year extension worth up to $223 million on Aug. 10, although the Sixers don’t appear likely to offer him that contract at this juncture.

“I think at this point, nobody in the NBA believes that the 76ers are going to give James Harden a max contract,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported in mid-May. “So the question is, what is he willing to do?”

The Sixers could offer Harden a roughly equivalent contract regardless of whether he opts in or out. But if they have a strong preference one way or another, they could use the next few weeks to try to sway him in that direction.

For instance, the Sixers could decide to offer Harden more years, more total money or more guaranteed money on his next contract if he opts out. They could threaten to offer him a smaller overall deal if he opts in, either in terms of money, years or both.

Granted, the Sixers might be playing with fire if they do so. Harden could opt in and eschew extension negotiations, instead preferring to become an unrestricted free agent in 2023. More teams could have salary-cap space next summer, which might give him a much more robust free-agent market than what he’s facing this offseason. (No team currently has enough cap space to sign him to anything close to a max deal.)

Regardless of whether Harden opts in or out, the Sixers should decide upon a total amount of money and number of years they’re willing to commit to him on his next contract. From there, they should explain to him the potential team-building benefits of him opting out and signing for less than his max salary this offseason. If he’s unwilling to do so, he might have to wind up settling for less money on the back end of his new deal instead.

In early May, Windhorst called it “extraordinarily likely” that Harden would pick up his player option and then begin “negotiating with the Sixers on what sort of deal it’s going to be” beyond that (h/t Adam Wells of Bleacher Report). If he does go that route, guaranteeing Green’s contract and using him as salary ballast in a trade may be the Sixers’ best path to upgrade their supporting cast this offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.