Here’s Why Trump’s New Indictment Could Hurt Him More Than Past Scandals

Topline

Former President Donald Trump has been indicted in Florida on charges stemming from him retaining White House documents at Mar-A-Lago, he announced Thursday, but while the ex-president’s first indictment in New York boosted him politically, recent polling suggests this could have a more damaging impact on voters’ thinking.

Former President Donald Trump greets supporters at a Team Trump volunteer leadership training event … [+] on June 1 in Grimes, Iowa.

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Key Facts

Trump has been indicted on charges that are expected to include obstruction, false statements and violations of the Espionage Act, according to his attorney Jim Trusty, marking the second indictment for the former president following state charges in New York in connection with “hush-money” payments made during his 2016 campaign.

The hush money indictment didn’t have a notable impact on Trump’s 2024 campaign, with Morning Consult finding support for him in the GOP primary actually went up following news of his indictment on March 31, and a CNN/SSRS poll conducted after he was charged found 79% of Republicans disapproved of him being indicted (though 60% of Americans overall approved).

But polling suggests Republicans view Trump’s mishandling of classified documents as more serious, with an Associated Press/NORC poll in April finding 47% of respondents overall view it as illegal (versus 41% for the hush money payments), and 20% of Republicans said the behavior was illegal versus 13% who said the same of the New York charges.

A Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted May 25-30 put disapproval even higher, finding 63% of all respondents and 42% of Republicans view “taking highly classified documents from the White House and obstructing efforts to retrieve them” as a “serious crime,” versus 52% of all respondents and 28% of Republicans who said the same of “falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to a porn star.”

If Trump is convicted of a “serious crime,” only 23% of Yahoo/YouGov respondents said he should be allowed to serve as president again, including 43% of Republicans—with 39% saying he should not be allowed—and only 51% of people who voted for Trump in 2020.

While a conviction might not be enough to lose Trump the GOP primary—where he’s now polling more than 30 percentage points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his biggest rival—it could have a bigger impact in a general election, with 63% of Independent voters saying he shouldn’t be allowed to serve as president.

What We Don’t Know

How polling will change now that Trump’s actually been indicted. The Washington Post notes previous YouGov polling ahead of Trump’s New York indictment found 73% of Republicans said it was a “a crime for a candidate for elected office to pay someone to remain silent about an issue that may affect the outcome of an election” and 76% said it was a crime to “fail to report” such a transaction. After Trump was indicted on those charges, subsequent polling found only 49% and 59% of Republicans, respectively, said those were crimes, and 63% disapproved of his indictment.

Contra

Trump’s indictments aren’t necessarily affecting people’s opinions of him, even if they do believe he’s committed serious crimes. Last month’s Yahoo/YouGov poll found 43% said Trump’s New York indictment and the pending investigations don’t make them feel any differently about him and they have the “same opinion as always,” while 34% said the alleged crimes make them feel more negative about him and 13% feel more positive. Among Republicans, 43% feel the same and slightly more said their opinion about Trump improved than went down (27% versus 22%). Only 16% of respondents who voted for Trump in 2020 say the investigations have worsened their opinion of the former president.

What To Watch For

Trump may soon face additional charges based on investigations by the DOJ and the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, into his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, with charges in the Georgia probe possibly coming as soon as August. That could further affect Trump’s campaign, polling suggests: the Yahoo/YouGov poll found even 50% of Republicans believe “conspiring to overturn an election” would be a “serious crime,” and the AP/NORC poll found 22% of Republicans believe Trump’s “alleged attempt to interfere in Georgia’s vote count” is illegal (versus 53% of respondents overall), the highest of any crime polled.

Key Background

Trump announced Thursday he’s been indicted as part of the DOJ’s documents investigation, and the president is expected to appear in court in Florida on Tuesday and face seven charges for crimes including obstruction, making false statements and violating the Espionage Act. The indictment follows a more than year-long investigation by the DOJ into Trump bringing thousands of White House documents back to Mar-A-Lago with him—including more than 300 classified ones—and his alleged attempts to obstruct that probe when he didn’t fully comply with a subpoena for classified documents last summer. Trump, who once proclaimed he could “shoot somebody” on 5th Avenue and still wouldn’t lose political support, has already used the indictment as a fundraising tool to bolster his campaign, after his campaign raised $15.4 million in the two weeks after Trump was indicted in New York—almost the same amount it raised in the entire first quarter of 2023.