Here’s Who’s Most Likely To Vote In The November Midterms, Poll Finds

Topline

Approximately two-thirds of U.S. voters are “definitely” planning to go to the polls in the November midterms, new polling from Morning Consult finds, with Republican voters and men so far appearing slightly more likely to vote despite Democratic strategists’ hope the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade will fire up their base.

People cast their ballots in the Republican primary election in Wilson, Wyoming, on August 16.

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Key Facts

The poll, conducted September 30-October 1 among 2,005 registered voters, found 67% of voters say they “definitely will vote” in November, the same share who said they were “absolutely certain to vote” at this point before the 2018 midterms—which ended up having the highest turnout among registered voters since 1914.

Republicans are so far more likely to turn out than Democrats (72% of Republicans versus 67% of Democrats), while 59% of Independents say they’ll vote.

Despite reports that voter registrations among women are surging in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, the poll found more men than women plan to vote—70% versus 64%—and Republican women are particularly likely to turn out, with 73% saying they’ll vote versus 64% of Democratic women.

White voters are also most likely to vote, with 72% saying they’ll go to the polls versus 57% of Black voters, 49% of Hispanic voters and 54% of voters from other racial and ethnic backgrounds.

The likelihood that voters will go to the polls increases based on how much education they’ve received, with 75% of voters holding a postgraduate degree planning to vote versus 74% of those with a bachelor’s degree and 62% of voters without a college education.

The share of voters planning to turn out also goes up with age: Only 46% of 18- to 34-year-olds are definitely voting, versus 59% of those ages 35-44, 73% of those 45-64 and 84% of voters ages 65 and up.

Surprising Fact

Independent voters are now notably more likely to vote than they were in 2018, with 59% saying they’ll vote in November versus 53% in 2018. Democrats, meanwhile, are notably less likely to say they’ll turn out, with 67% of Democratic voters saying they’ll turn out now versus 73% in 2018. (Republicans’ share only dropped by one percentage point since 2018.) A 69% majority of voters who voted for President Joe Biden in November also say they’ll turn out now, versus 80% of Hillary Clinton voters in 2018. Voters with postgraduate degrees have also seen their enthusiasm go down, with 75% planning to vote now versus 83% in 2018.

Contra

Despite Republicans reporting being more likely to vote here, a FiveThirtyEight polling average finds Democrats are right now slightly ahead when it comes to the generic congressional ballot—which polls voters on which party they’d support in the election—with Democrats having 45.3% support versus Republicans’ 44.3%. Separate Morning Consult polling gives Democrats an even bigger advantage, finding 49% favored electing Democrats versus 44% preferring Republicans as of October 2. That polling also found more Democrats report being “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in November, with 63% of Democrats saying they’re enthusiastic versus 59% of Republicans.

What To Watch For

The midterm elections will take place on Tuesday, November 8, in which Republicans and Democrats will fight for control of Congress while a number of high-profile gubernatorial races take place across the country. Republicans or Democrats would need to pick up only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Republicans would have to gain less than 10 seats in the House to flip that chamber—which polling suggests they could very well do. Among the governors running for reelection are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who’s widely viewed as a contender for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), whose race is one of several gubernatorial elections in battleground states that could dramatically impact what those states’ abortion policies look like.

Key Background

Republicans had been favored to win out in November, reflecting a broader trend that the president’s party usually fares worse in the midterms, though the Supreme Court’s June ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade has put the upcoming elections more in play for Democrats. Democratic strategists have hoped the Supreme Court’s landmark abortion ruling will turn out the party’s base, as well as convince Independents and moderate Republicans to back Democratic candidates in order to shore up abortion rights. High-profile races that have taken place so far in the run-up to November have suggested abortion is driving voters to the polls, with a Kansas ballot measure on abortion in August heavily favoring protecting abortion rights and Democratic candidate Pat Ryan winning a competitive special congressional election in New York, which was widely viewed as a bellwether for whether the abortion debate would motivate voters. While early signs are encouraging to Democrats, however, it still remains too early to tell how big of a factor abortion will play in the midterms. Polling shows the economy is still the most important influence on Americans’ votes, with 77% of Morning Consult respondents saying that issue is “very important” when deciding their vote as of October 1, versus 51% who said the same about abortion.