Topline
Abortion rights could become a pivotal issue in the November midterm elections if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this summer—as it may be poised to do, according to a draft opinion obtained by Politico—with broad implications for gubernatorial races in battleground states, party control of state legislatures and Congress, and more.
Protesters march past the US Capitol as they take part in the Women’s March and Rally for Abortion … [+]
Key Facts
Control of Congress: election pollsters and strategists believe Republicans have a good chance to win majorities in the House and Senate, and the Washington Post reported they’re likely to try to pass a nationwide abortion ban that would ban the procedure as soon as six weeks into a pregnancy if they do.
Control of state legislatures: State legislatures will be pivotal for determining what abortion laws take effect in the absence of Roe; the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in a memo its biggest priorities are maintaining control in Colorado, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico and Minnesota, flipping state legislatures in Michigan, New Hampshire and Minnesota, and making inroads in GOP-controlled Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Gubernatorial races: Races in Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be particularly important—as Democratic leaders fight to maintain control so they can veto any abortion bans passed by the GOP legislatures—and Florida, Georgia and Ohio are battleground states with gubernatorial elections where Republicans are right now likely to ban or heavily restrict abortion if Roe falls.
State attorney generals: In Michigan and Wisconsin, AGs are up for reelection who have vowed not to enforce abortion bans put in place before Roe if the ruling is overturned and they go back into effect, and AG races are also taking place in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Ohio.
Ballot measures: Vermont voters will be asked this fall to approve a constitutional amendment protecting abortion, while Kentucky has a measure that would state there’s no right to abortion in the state constitution and a Montana ballot initiative could expand personhood rights for fetuses.v
State supreme court races: Six state supreme court seats are on the ballot in Kansas and five in Florida, which are important because state courts there have previously said those state constitutions protect the right to abortion, and those rulings will likely now be challenged (Alaska, Iowa, Minnesota and Montana have similar state court precedents that could be at risk, but fewer supreme court seats on the ballot).
What To Watch For
Kansas voters will vote on abortion even sooner, as the state has a ballot measure for its August 2 primary that will determine whether the state constitution should be amended to no longer protect abortion. If the measure succeeds, that would make it much easier for the state to ban abortion by overturning the state’s court precedent. It’s also possible abortion-related measures could appear on the ballot in Colorado, Michigan and Oklahoma, but the deadlines for those to be finalized are still coming later this year.
What We Don’t Know
Democratic strategists are hoping Roe being overturned would be a catalyst to boost turnout and get Democratic voters to the polls in November. A Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted Tuesday, after the draft opinion was leaked, found 58% of respondents believe it’s at least somewhat important to vote for a candidate that supports abortion access, including 79% of Democrats, while only 44% care about voting for someone who opposes it (60% of Republicans). That said, previous polling has indicated Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats, and it’s unclear whether a Roe ruling would be enough to reverse that trend.
Key Background
Abortion rights came to the forefront this week after Politico published a draft opinion showing a majority of Supreme Court justices are in favor of overturning Roe, which granted the legal right to an abortion in 1973. The draft, which is from February, is in a case concerning Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban, and suggests the court will overturn abortion rights entirely and leave the issue to the states or Congress, with Justice Samuel Alito calling Roe “egregiously wrong.” Chief Justice John Roberts has confirmed the draft’s authenticity but cautioned it should not be taken as the court’s final ruling, which will likely be released in June. States had already been moving to restrict or protect abortion rights even before the draft opinion was released, with states like Texas and Oklahoma passing abortion bans while Democratic-led states like New Jersey and Connecticut took steps to shore up abortion rights.
Further Reading
Here’s What Will Happen If The Supreme Court Overturns Roe V. Wade (Forbes)
Democrats Aim to Use Abortion Rights to Jolt State Legislative Races (New York Times)
In midterm battlegrounds, both parties try to weaponize abortion (NBC News)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/05/06/heres-where-abortion-rights-will-be-on-the-midterm-ballot-in-november/