Here’s When To Expect To Know Which Party Will Win House Majority, With Nine Races Yet To Be Called

Topline

Republicans are on a path to reclaiming the majority in the House, but in nine midterm races that have yet to be called–four of which Republicans are currently winning–vote-counting could take days or even weeks.

Key Facts

A win for Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado could seal Republicans’ victory; she is leading Democrat Adam Frisch by 0.34 points in the Colorado House race, and a final count is expected on Thursday or Friday at the earliest, Frisch told the Colorado Sun.

A recount can be requested in Colorado, and must be completed by December 15, if the second place candidate’s vote total amounts to less than 0.5 percent of the leading candidate’s tally; as of Wednesday, the margin stood at 0.7 percent.

In California, Republicans led by five points or more in three races where 70% or less of votes had been counted as of Wednesday afternoon, and Secretary of State Shirley Weber warned Tuesday that it could be weeks before the state has final results in several tight races, CNN reported.

In Los Angeles, where incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia (R) is leading Democrat Christy Smith by 8 points in a race to represent the northern portion of the county, 565,000 uncounted ballots remain, the county registrar reported Tuesday, among an estimated 2.8 million statewide.

Among the five races where Democrats are in the lead, two in California could potentially break for Republicans: In Orange County’s 47th District, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 1.6 points with 84% of votes counted, and in the Central Valley’s 13th District, where Democrat Adam Gray leads Republican John Duarte by 0.53 points, with 86% of votes counted.

Rep. Mary Peltola (D), is leading former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) by 22 points after beating Palin in a special election in August, however, Peltola does not have the majority votes needed to prevent the contest from heading to a second round of ranked-choice voting, when the losing candidate’s second picks will be distributed until two candidates are left and the one with the most votes wins.

The remaining two uncalled races are in Northern Maine, where Democrat Jared Golden leads Republican Bruce Poliquin by three points with 95% of votes counted, and in the San Diego suburbs, where incumbent Rep. Mike Levin (D) is up five points over Republican Brian Maryott (89% of votes counted).

Key Background

Republicans have been one win away from clinching majority control of the lower chamber since Monday, when five races were called for GOP House candidates. As of Wednesday, Democrats had secured 209 seats, compared to Republicans’ 217–far less than pre-Election Day forecasts that projected Republicans winning up to 35 seats. They’re likely to hold an advantage in single-digit margins when the next Congress takes office in January. The Senate was also projected to lean Republican in the weeks before Election Day, but Democrats came out ahead in several pivotal races and secured the 50 seats they needed to win the majority on Saturday with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada. Democrats have a chance to win one more seat than they currently hold in the split chamber in the December 6 runoff election between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Rep. Herschel Walker.

Tangent

The worse-than-expected Republican midterm showing has roiled the party and created internal finger-pointing. In both the House and Senate leadership elections this week, the GOP’s current leaders, Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), fended off unexpected, last-minute challenges for their positions amid criticism about their roles in the party’s midterm performance. Despite the uncalled races in both chambers, the elections went ahead and both McConnell and McCarthy prevailed. With only a few more House Republicans than Democrats in the next Congress, McConnell will have a tough road to securing the 218 votes needed to officially win the speakership (he only needed a simple majority to be nominated for the post).

Further Reading

Mitch McConnell Reelected GOP Senate Leader—Surviving Hard-Right Challenge (Forbes)

Kevin McCarthy Fends Off Challenge For House Speaker Nomination—But Still Doesn’t Have The Votes To Win (Forbes)

GOP Midterm Fallout: Calls Grow For Party To Delay Leadership Elections After Lackluster Performance (Forbes)

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2022/11/16/heres-when-to-expect-to-know-which-party-will-win-house-majority-with-nine-races-yet-to-be-called/