Topline
Former President Donald Trump may be indicted as soon as this week in Manhattan on charges stemming from his alleged “hush money” payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, an unprecedented event for a former president that would lead to him being arraigned in court—but not held in custody or being forced to end to his presidential campaign.
Former President Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower in Manhattan on May 18, 2021 in New York City.
Key Facts
When Will Trump Be Indicted? That’s still unclear—the Manhattan grand jury hearing the case still has at least one more witness to hear from on Monday, and while they could vote on charges as soon as Monday, it could also come later depending on how things go.
What Will Trump Be Arrested For? It’s expected that any charges against Trump will be for falsifying business records tied to the hush money payments to Daniels—as he allegedly reimbursed ex-attorney Michael Cohen for paying Daniels through the Trump Organization, labeling the charges as “legal fees”—which can be a felony in New York if they were falsified to cover up a crime and could carry a prison sentence of up to four years.
What Happens After The Grand Jury Votes? If the grand jury votes to indict Trump, the indictment will be filed under seal, so it won’t be made public until Trump’s arraignment in court unless the Manhattan district attorney makes it available earlier.
Will Trump Surrender? Trump’s lawyers are expected to negotiate with prosecutors a date and time for Trump to turn himself in to the authorities after he’s indicted, and Trump’s attorney has suggested the ex-president would voluntarily surrender himself to the authorities.
What Happens If He Doesn’t? If Trump doesn’t voluntarily surrender and is still at his home in Florida at Mar-A-Lago, he would have to be extradited, which would either be approved by a judge or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), Trump’s main rival for the 2024 presidential nomination.
Could DeSantis Block Trump From Being Arrested? Experts cited by Insider note that while DeSantis could possibly delay Trump’s extradition, his approval is really an administrative formality, and he wouldn’t be able to totally stop the ex-president from being charged.
What Happens Once Trump’s Taken Into Custody? Trump would likely be booked at the Manhattan DA’s office, where he’ll have his fingerprints and mugshot taken and have his DNA and other information taken before he’s formally arraigned and appears in court to plead guilty or not guilty.
Will That Definitely Happen? Not necessarily—Trump advisors have discussed the possibility of negotiating with prosecutors to have Trump appear virtually for his arraignment from Mar-A-Lago, the Guardian reports, though the former president has reportedly expressed interest in appearing in person.
Will Trump Be Handcuffed? It’s not likely Trump will do the traditional “perp walk” before he’s arraigned in handcuffs, experts cited by Insider speculated, given the optics of handcuffing a former president—which could play into Trump’s claims that Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg is politically biased against him—and potential security concerns.
Will Trump Be Held In Custody? Trump is almost certain to be immediately released once he’s arraigned, particularly under new bail rules in New York that allow people who are indicted on misdemeanor charges or non-violent felonies to be released on their own recognizance without bail unless they’re deemed to be a flight risk.
When Could Trump Be Convicted? Manhattan criminal cases typically take more than a year to go to trial, experts cited by Reuters note, so Trump’s trial likely wouldn’t be for a while—possibly until the 2024 election season is well underway, or even after the election takes place, which Reuters notes would be uncharted legal territory if Trump were tried on state charges as president or president-elect.
Will The Indictment Affect Trump’s 2024 Run? Being indicted or even convicted wouldn’t stop Trump from becoming president on its own, as legal experts have noted there are no restrictions in the Constitution that bar people from becoming president if they’ve been indicted—though if Trump becomes a convicted felon, he could face restrictions on being able to vote for himself.
What To Watch For
While it’s still unclear what day Trump will actually be indicted—if he is—the ex-president has said on social media without evidence that he’ll be arrested on Tuesday and called for protests. Law enforcement agencies have reportedly already been preparing for protests in the event of Trump’s arrest as soon as this week, and it’s possible protests could still move forward on Tuesday even if Trump isn’t arrested given his call for them to take place, though some organizers of the January 6 riots have said they plan to stand down this time around. The grand jury meets on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, Insider notes, so if the grand jury doesn’t decide on charges on Monday, it wouldn’t meet again until Wednesday to decide on them, and prosecutors would still have to negotiate with Trump’s legal team about his surrender to the authorities, making a Tuesday arrest unlikely. The grand jury is expected to hear from attorney Robert Costello on Monday, a former attorney for Trump ally Rudy Giuliani who’s expected to give testimony that’s favorable to Trump and rebuts claims from Cohen about the hush money payments. Cohen, who has already been convicted for his role in making the $130,000 in payments to Daniels, may then be given an opportunity to respond to Costello’s comments before the grand jury, further delaying any potential indictment.
What We Don’t Know
Trump would be the first former president in U.S. history to be criminally charged, so there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how the process will play out and how any charges against him could be handled differently from typical criminal prosecutions. It also remains to be seen whether the Manhattan charges will be just the first in a series of charges Trump will face, as the former president also remains under investigation in Georgia for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and by the Justice Department in two investigations related to the 2020 election and him bringing White House documents back to Mar-A-Lago.
Key Background
The Manhattan DA’s office has been investigating Trump and the Trump Organization’s finances since 2019. The investigation was initially focused on the hush money payments to Daniels, which were made ahead of Trump’s 2016 election to cover up her alleged affair with the then-candidate, but prosecutors later put that to the side and pursued a broader inquiry into the Trump Organization’s finances. That led to the company and former CFO Allen Weisselberg being indicted and ultimately found guilty of criminal tax fraud. No criminal charges were brought against Trump directly for those crimes, however, and while prosecutors initially appeared to shelve their criminal case against the ex-president, the New York Times reported in November that DA Bragg had revived the investigation into Trump and was now focused again on the Daniels payments, which Trump allegedly reimbursed Cohen for after he was already in the White House.
Further Reading
Trump Says He Will Be Arrested Tuesday—Urges Supporters To Protest (Forbes)
Trump Could Be Indicted As Early As Next Week, Report Says (Forbes)
Not so fast. A New York grand jury will hear a final surprise witness on Monday and won’t vote on Trump indictment until it’s over. (Insider)
Inside the Payoff to a Porn Star That Could Lead to Trump’s Indictment (New York Times)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/03/20/heres-what-will-happen-if-trump-is-arrested/