Topline
Tuesday’s midterm elections brought some good news for supporters of abortion rights, as Democrats won key races that will stave off new abortion bans from being enacted in at least three battleground states—though many races remain too close to call, and it’s too early to tell which party will carry Congress and have a hand in pushing federal policies.
Abortion rights demonstrators gather outside the US Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., on June 24.
Key Facts
Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro (D) beat out GOP challenger Doug Mastriano, ensuring any new abortion restrictions that the state’s Republican-controlled legislatures pass will be vetoed and abortion will remain legal.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) won reelection and the state passed a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state Constitution, which will prevent the state’s abortion ban from before Roe v. Wade was decided from going back into effect and future restrictions from being enacted.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) won reelection, but it remains too early to tell if he’ll be able to veto any abortion restrictions the GOP-controlled legislature passes or if they’ll get a veto-proof majority, and the state’s attorney general race—which will decide whether the state’s pre-Roe abortion ban gets enforced—is still too close to call.
Abortion ballot measures protecting reproductive rights have so far also passed in California and Vermont, further protecting abortion rights in those states through constitutional amendments, though other ballot measures in Kentucky and Montana are still too close to call.’
North Carolina Republicans failed to garner a supermajority in the state legislature by one vote, according to early election results, which means the state’s Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will be able to veto any abortion bans they pass and keep the procedure legal in the state—one of the only remaining places in the South where abortion hasn’t yet been largely outlawed.
Republican incumbent governors held on to their seats in Florida and Georgia, which means those states’ GOP-controlled legislatures could still move forward with stricter abortion bans, and Arizona still has several races in play that will shape the state’s abortion policies, including the gubernatorial race, attorney general race and battle for which party controls the state legislature.
Crucial Quote
“For everyone who said abortion was a losing issue; for everyone who said abortion is controversial; for everyone who said abortion is a fringe concern and not the meat-and-potatoes kitchen table problem Michiganders care about: you’re wrong, and the YES votes prove it,” NARAL Pro-Choice America President Mini Timmaraju said in a statement responding to Michigan’s abortion rights ballot measure passing. “Pro-choice voters ARE the majority, and we are just getting started.”
What To Watch For
What will happen in Congress. It’s still too early to tell which party will gain control of the House or Senate, though current forecasts suggest the House is likely to go to the GOP while Democrats may keep control of the Senate. That means it’s probably unlikely either party will be able to do much on abortion: President Joe Biden had vowed to make enshrining abortion rights in federal law a priority if Democrats kept control of Congress—and had enough senators in favor of killing the filibuster—while Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has introduced a federal 15-week abortion ban that Republicans could push if they had full control.
Key Background
Abortion has become a major issue in the midterm elections since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, resulting in a wave of state-level abortion bans and sparking outrage among abortion rights advocates that Democratic strategists had hoped would boost voter turnout. With abortion now largely banned in more than a dozen states—and bans blocked in court in some others—advocates have been fearing which states will be the next to enact restrictions, and Tuesday’s midterms were viewed as a major indicator of where policies could be heading. It was unclear how the midterms would shape up for abortion: While voter enthusiasm was high in the more immediate wake of the Supreme Court’s decision, resulting in Kansas voters roundly defeating an August ballot measure that would have paved the way to an abortion ban, more recent polling had suggested abortion was slipping from voters’ minds as Republicans’ chances increased. Ultimately, election results that have come out so far suggest the “red wave” of GOP victories that was predicted prior to Tuesday night did not come to pass to the extent that Republicans had hoped, though the party still appears poised to make inroads at both the state and federal levels.
Further Reading
Here’s Where Abortion Rights Are On The Ballot In The Midterms (Forbes)
Tracking results where abortion access hangs in the balance (Washington Post)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/11/09/heres-how-the-midterm-election-results-will-impact-abortion-bans/