Here’s exactly where ‘whiplash-inducing’ mortgage rates are headed this year, according to 6 economists and real estate pros

Prediction 1: Rates could soar as high as 7.5%

“Mortgage rates have soared higher at a whiplash-inducing pace. With the labor market still strong, the economy resilient and inflation stubbornly near 40-year highs, 30-year rates between 7% and 7.5% will be the norm in November. Shop around — not only to get the best rate but to secure the lowest fees,” says McBride. (See the best mortgage rates you may qualify for now here.)

McBride isn’t the only one with that prediction. “It’s possible mortgage rates will reach 7.5% in November. The 10-year Treasury yield, an indicator of mortgage rates, has already surpassed the 4% benchmark. Fast rising rent prices, accounting for 40% of the consumer price index, will put additional upward pressure on inflation in the coming months. Rent prices will keep climbing as people may need to rent for longer due to historically low affordability;15% fewer renters can afford to buy the median-priced home compared to a year ago,” says Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of forecasting at the National Association of Realtors.

Prediction 2: Until inflation is under control, mortgage rates will continue to rise

“Mortgage rates will likely continue to rise until we start to see data showing that inflation is under control. The whole market right now is sort of waiting for the signal that inflation is subsiding and we just haven’t seen that yet, so it doesn’t seem likely to happen by the end of the year, but it’s possible,” says Greg Phillips, chief technology officer at real estate and mortgage brokerage company Houwzer.  (See the best mortgage rates you may qualify for now here.)

Prediction 3: Rates won’t increase as much as they did in October

But now for some better news. While mortgage rates rose more than half a percentage point in October, “in November, mortgage rates are likely to continue climbing, but not as much as in October,” says Holden Lewis, home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet. 

The reason? “Investors look a few months ahead and they believe there’s a chance that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate increases in its December meeting. The prospect that the Fed will moderate its rate-rising campaign should ease the upward pressure on mortgage rates,” says Lewis.

Prediction 4: The Fed is likely to increase rates 75 basis points in November — and that means mortgage rates could also see an uptick

While the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates directly, mortgage rates often follow the central bank’s lead to some degree. “The Fed is likely to increase rates 75 basis points in November and may pursue a similar sized hike in December,” says Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. But, she adds that she expect that rise this time to have a “more muted impact than usual.” (See the best mortgage rates you may qualify for now here.)

Prediction 5: Higher rates won’t necessarily mean home prices come down

Higher mortgage rates will keep many from listing their homes, pros say. “Since two-thirds of sellers end up buying again, there’s little incentive to trade a roughly 3% fixed rate mortgage for a much higher 7% rate,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. “The decline in the flow of homes coming on the market is keeping inventory tight. On one hand, declining home buying demand pulls down prices. On the other hand, the decline in supply supports prices.”