Here Are The Oddsmakers’s Picks For Top Grammy Awards

Topline

Here’s who awards bettors are predicting will win the biggest Grammy categories on Sunday, including the highly anticipated Adele vs. Beyoncé rematch for Album of the Year—a rare category Beyoncé has never won.

Key Facts

Album Of The Year

• Bettors are predicting a close race between Beyoncé’s Renaissance and Adele’s 30 — the second high-profile matchup between the singers after Adele’s 25 bested Beyoncé’s Lemonade in 2017 — with Harry Styles’s Harry’s House as a potential spoiler.
• Gold Derby and Northstar Bets both have Renaissance favored to win, with 10/1 and 1/2 odds, respectively, while MyBookie has Renaissance and 30 tied for the lead, each with 6/4 odds.
• On Gold Derby, which breaks down how many users have predicted each album to win, 1,503 of the more than 2,000 predictors are expecting Renaissance to win, while 564 chose Adele.
• Adele is second on Gold Derby with 11/1 odds and third on Northstar Bets with 7/2 odds, while Styles is second on Northstar Bets with 13/4 odds and third on Gold Derby with 13/1 odds.
• Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers or Brandi Carlile’s In These Silent Days may have an outside shot to win — Lamar’s album is fourth on MyBookie and Northstar Bets with 20/1 and 7/1 odds, while Carlile is fourth on Gold Derby with 13/1 odds.
• Also nominated in this category are Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti, Lizzo’s Special, ABBA’s Voyage, Mary J. Blige’s Good Morning Gorgeous, and Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres.

Song Of The Year

• The Grammy for Song of the Year, which honors the best written song, is largely expected to go to Adele’s “Easy On Me,” which has the highest odds on Gold Derby, Northstar Bets and MyBookie: 10/1, 1/1 and 6/4 odds, respectively.
• Harry Styles’s “As It Was” could challenge, according to bettors: he’s second on the Gold Derby and Northstar Bets odds with 23/2 and 9/4 odds, respectively.
• Adele holds a wide lead on Gold Derby’s predictions, though: 1,307 users are predicting her, compared to 245 for Styles.
• Taylor Swift could also pull off a win with her ten-minute version of “All Too Well” — she’s second on MyBookie with 2/1 odds.
• Beyoncé’s “Break My Soul” ranks in the top four on the Gold Derby, MyBookie, and Northstar Bets odds, while Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit” and Lizzo’s “About Damn Time” could also spoil.
• Other nominees in this category are Kendrick Lamar’s “The Heart Part 5,” Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That,” Gayle’s “ABCDEFU,” and DJ Khaled’s “God Did.”

Record Of The Year

• The Record of the Year award, which goes to a song’s artist and producer, looks to be a similar race to Song of the Year — Gold Derby, MyBookie and Northstar Bets are all expecting this to be a race between Adele and Styles.
• Adele’s “Easy On Me” leads the odds on Gold Derby, MyBookie and Northstar Bets with 10/1, 1/1 and 10/11 odds, respectively — and Styles is second on all three with 11/1, 6/4 and 6/4 odds, respectively.
• Beyoncé’s “Break My Soul,” Lizzo’s “About Damn Time” and Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit” are third, fourth and fifth, respectively, on all of Gold Derby, MyBookie and Northstar Bets.
• On Gold Derby, 1,158 users are predicting “Easy On Me,” compared to 658 for “As It Was” and 295 for “Break My Soul.”
• Also nominated for this award are Brandi Carlile’s “You and Me on the Rock,” Kendrick Lamar’s “The Heart Part 5,” ABBA’s “Don’t Shut Me Down,” Doja Cat’s “Woman,” and Mary J. Blige’s “Good Morning Gorgeous.”

Best New Artist

• Less of a clear-cut race, Latto leads the MyBookie and Northstar Bets predictions with 10/13 and 17/20 odds, respectively — but the rapper is down in fourth on Gold Derby with 2/1 odds.
• Gold Derby users instead predict Brazilian singer Anitta will take home the award — she has 11/1 odds on the website — and she’s in second place on the MyBookie and Northstar Bets predictions with 7/2 and 13/4 odds.
• Italian rock band Maneskin and British indie band Wet Leg rank second and third on Gold Derby, with 23/2 and 12/1 odds each, and they both rank within the top six on Northstar Bets and MyBookie.
• Singer Muni Long could spoil — she’s third on MyBookie with 4/1 odds, fourth on Northstar Bets with 10/1 odds, and fifth on Gold Derby with 13/1 odds.
• Other nominees in this category are Omar Apollo, Samara Joy, Domi and JD Beck, Molly Tuttle and Tobe Nwigwe.

Key Background

For Adele and Beyoncé fans, the upcoming Grammys may be reminiscent of the 2017 ceremony where the two also went head-to-head in the top categories. Adele’s 25 won Album of the Year over Beyoncé’s Lemonade, and her smash hit “Hello” won both Record and Song of the Year, besting Beyoncé’s “Formation.” Adele’s victory in the top album category was regarded by the media as an upset — Beyoncé led the Gold Derby predictions with 4/9 odds, with 1,128 users predicting her compared to 493 who chose Adele — and in her acceptance speech, Adele tearfully declared she “can’t possibly accept this award,” praising Beyoncé’s album. But both Beyoncé and Adele have been frequently awarded by the Grammys throughout their careers. In 2021, Beyoncé became the most-awarded female artist in Grammys history, with 28 wins to date, and she’s the most-nominated artist at this year’s ceremony. Adele has 15 Grammy awards and hasn’t lost a single nomination since 2010.

Key Background

Some of the year’s biggest artists weren’t nominated this year after choosing not to submit their work for consideration. The Weeknd, whose album Dawn FM would have been eligible, has not submitted his work for Grammy consideration since his massively successful album and single, After Hours and “Blinding Lights,” were not nominated at the 2021 ceremony. He’s called the awards show “corrupt” and has criticized their alleged lack of transparency, particularly the secret nomination review committees (which have since been removed). Silk Sonic — the Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak duo — chose not to submit their eligible album, An Evening With Silk Sonic, after winning Record and Song of the Year at last year’s ceremony, telling Rolling Stone they’d be “crazy to ask for anything more.” Drake opted not to submit his album Honestly, Nevermind for consideration after previously criticizing the Grammys for miscategorizing his music and skipping ceremonies in which he was nominated.

Further Reading

Beyoncé Dominates 2023 Grammy Nominations—Will Face Off With Adele Again (Forbes)

Silk Sonic Drops Out Of Grammys Consideration—Avoids Faceoff With Beyoncé And Adele (Forbes)

Grammy Awards 2022: Silk Sonic Wins Song, Record Of The Year, Jon Batiste Wins Album (Forbes)