Topline
The 2023 Masters teeing off Thursday will feature 18 LIV Golf players largely given the cold shoulder by the golf establishment as they shunned the PGA Tour for millions in Saudi money and it could potentially be one of the last tournaments from Tiger Woods, among other juicy storylines–these are the chances oddsmakers ascribe to all of the anticipated developments golf’s biggest tournament.
LIV’s Dustin Johnson, left, and Phil Mickelson during a practice round at Augusta this week.
Key Facts
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook imply a LIV golfer has a 19% chance of finishing Sunday at Augusta National Golf Club as the outright Masters winner.
2020 Masters champion Dustin Johnson is the most likely LIV winner, according to FanDuel, with +2500 odds of winning another green jacket, or 3.9% implied odds, while 2020 Masters runner-up Cameron Smith and 2019 Masters runner-up Brooks Koepka are the only other rebel tour golfers with a 2% or greater chance at winning, at 3.5% and 2.2%, respectively.
Still, PGA Tour members account for 17 of the 20 golfers with the best odds at winning the Masters, with reigning Masters champion Scottie Scheffler and avowed LIV critic Rory McIlroy owners of the lowest odds at +700, or 12.5% implied odds.
Woods has just a 1.4% chance of winning, per FanDuel, the 29th-best odds, and even more eyes than usual will be on the richest and likely most popular golfer ever after Woods indicated this could be one of his last-ever Masters.
A LIV winner would be quite the seminal moment for the tour that poached off dozens of the top golfers last year to much backlash, and LIV’s CEO Greg Norman said in a recent interview he has “goosebumps” thinking about the 18 golfers celebrating together should a LIV player win the Masters.
It’d also be quite the clapback at Fred Ridley, chairman of the Masters’ organizing body, who said in December that LIV golfers “diminish[ed] the virtues” of golf in his statement allowing golfers on the upstart tour to play in the 2023 tournament.
Surprising Fact
Current LIV members won nine of the last 17 Masters. The six Masters winners now with LIV—Sergio Garcia, Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Charl Schwartzel and Bubba Watson—will all compete at Augusta this week.
Key Background
Financed by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, LIV burst onto the golf scene in 2022, signing roughly a quarter of the world’s top 100 golfers thanks to unprecedented guaranteed paydays that reportedly eclipsed $100 million for stars like Mickelson and Johnson and a close allyship with former President Donald Trump. LIV’s success at luring away PGA Tour stalwarts set forth a bitter feud between the rival tours, with the PGA Tour suspending any golfers playing in LIV events, landing it a Department of Justice antitrust probe and a messy ongoing lawsuit.
Tangent
World No. 2 McIlroy, who’s accused LIV defectors of spreading “propaganda” and taking “the easy way out” in the sport, said this week he wants the Masters to be free of drama between the adversarial circuits. “This week and this tournament is way bigger” than LIV vs. PGA, McIlroy told reporters Tuesday, adding, “it’s just great that all of the best players in the world are together again for the first time in what seems to be quite a while.”
Further Reading
Majors, Monopolies, Megabucks And Donald Trump: Inside The Business Of The New Saudi Golf League (Forbes)
6 Numbers That Show How Saudi Money Forever Changed Golf (Forbes)
LIV’s Astonishing Progress In Just Six Wild Months: A Timeline (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/04/05/here-are-the-odds-a-liv-golfer-wins-the-masters/