A new multi-scenario analysis by market commentator Egrag Crypto is gaining attention across the XRP community, outlining four structural price paths that XRP could take depending on how its long-term chart formation resolves against Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways
- The model outlines four structural outcomes for XRP — from bearish breakdown to ultra-bullish pennant breakout.
- The scenarios rely on XRP/BTC ratios applied to projected Bitcoin price ranges.
- Across all outcomes, the statistical mean of projections places XRP near $11.
- The study highlights XRP’s asymmetric long-term potential while emphasizing uncertainty rather than prediction.
Rather than predicting a single outcome, the simulation applies different XRP/BTC ratios to project potential XRP valuations at corresponding Bitcoin price levels — from bearish breakdowns to highly bullish expansions.
The study argues that XRP’s long-term asymmetric payoff remains intact but emphasizes that the market structure, not sentiment, will determine which scenario eventually unfolds.
#XRP / #BTC Simulation Exercise : Possible Formation and Scenarios and the Mean ($11)📊🔍:
Time for a Quick Thread 🧵:
The Mean is $11 #XRP, Dig deep with me to see why!!!
(1/6):
This post explores #XRP price projections using different #XRP/#BTC ratios, each tied to a… pic.twitter.com/3PHIALy70X— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 16, 2025
Scenario A — Bearish Breakdown Still Shows Supportable Levels
The most cautious outcome assumes a breakdown from XRP’s multi-year descending triangle. Under this structure, the XRP/BTC ratio would compress to 0.00001030, resulting in XRP trading near $1.03 if Bitcoin were at $100,000 and $0.309 if Bitcoin were at $30,000.
Although bearish, the model notes that this scenario would still be structurally realistic in macro terms rather than catastrophic.
Scenario B — Bullish Breakout of Descending Triangle
A breakout from the same triangle shifts the ratio sharply to 0.000048, initiating what the analyst calls XRP’s “first macro expansion wave.”
With this outcome, XRP would sit around $4.80 at BTC $100,000, scaling up to $8.16 if Bitcoin reached $170,000.
Scenario C — Macro Falling Wedge Resolution
The third pathway uses the MACRO Falling Wedge breakout ratio — 0.000073, which aligns with a multi-year bullish structure on the weekly chart.
This scenario places XRP around $7.30 at BTC $100,000 and $12.41 if Bitcoin climbed to $170,000.
Egrag noted this pathway currently represents the highest-probability macro outcome if XRP finally clears its years-long compression zone.
Scenario D — Ultra-Bullish Pennant Breakout
The most aggressive model — based on a full Bullish Pennant breakout — uses a ratio of 0.00013, marking a deep expansion phase in XRP’s market cycle.
Here, XRP would reach $13.00 at BTC $100,000 and a massive $22.10 if BTC surged to $170,000.
According to the model, XRP hitting $27 would require Bitcoin to trade around $207,700 if this ratio plays out.
Why the “Average Target” Is $11
Across the four scenarios, the mid-range of price projections converges near $11 per XRP, which is why Egrag identifies $11 as the mean of the entire simulation set — not a forecast, but a mathematical midpoint derived from the structural models.
Investor Reaction
The thread drew strong approval from market watchers advocating multi-scenario modeling over one-directional price calls. Analysts at X Finance Bull Academy wrote that all models point toward the same theme: XRP’s asymmetric upside remains substantial when viewed over a macro timeline.
The author stressed repeatedly that the thread is not a prediction or guarantee but a simulation to map the full range of technically reasonable outcomes.
In short: XRP’s future depends on how the chart structure resolves — not on optimism or fear.
- RSI (14) currently ~43 → XRP is in neutral-to-oversold territory, showing weak momentum but not extreme selling
- MACD is below the signal line with negative histogram bars → indicating bearish trend continuation unless a crossover occurs
- Together, both indicators reflect cooling momentum rather than a trend reversal
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/here-are-4-scenarios-that-could-define-xrps-next-major-cycle/