Harrison Barnes Has Been A Huge Key To Sacramento’s Successful Year

The Sacramento Kings are looking to break a 17-year playoff drought, as they through 57 games are 32-25 and currently owners of the third seed in the Western Conference.

Most headlines have been devoted to the play of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, deservedly so, but veteran forward Harrison Barnes has been a crucial element to Sacramento’s successful season.

The 30-year-old forward turned himself into an elite offensive efficiency player after arriving in Sacramento four years ago, sporting a TS of over 62% over his past three seasons, providing the Kings with a level of consistency that’s been a major boost for the current roster.

Barnes is this efficient due to his ability to identify the right shots, and leaning into analytics. Pegged as a midrange scorer when he was drafted seventh overall in 2011, Barnes has embraced the three-point line in recent years, and almost entirely disregarded the long two-pointer, instead opting for interior scoring as to balance his perimeter game.

Only 0.7% of Barnes’ shot attempts have been from beyond 16 feet and to the three-point line. The two years prior? 0.7% and 0.3%. In fact, in the 2020-2021 season, Barnes didn’t even make a single shot from that area. That’s an enormous change from the 2016-2017 season, where that shot made up a whopping 26.5% of his offense.

This season, Barnes’ streamlined shot profile is fairly simple. 46% of his shots are from downtown. 48.4% are from within ten feet. He’s been exceptional around the basket, converting on 72% of his attempts near the rim, while canning 37.4% from long range. Defenses might know where his shots are coming from, but so far they’ve yet to find a way to stop him from getting them up.

In part, that’s due to Barnes being a surprisingly effective creator in his own right. He’s unassisted on 42.4% of his two-pointers, showcasing an ability to put the ball on the deck and get into the teeth of the defense, and manufacturing shots near the rim off post-ups and face-up drives.

While the 6’8 forward is assisted on over 92% of his three-pointers, the ability to dribble and initialize the offense throws off defenders when they’re guarding him outside. Barnes will use his reputation as a shooter to his advantage, and dribble past player who close out too hard on him. Or, he’ll fire away right off the catch, if defenders are sagging off.

Barnes also cuts effectively along the baseline without the ball, allowing Sabonis to hit him on backdoor passes, where his touch around the basket again assists him in getting quality looks, not to mention draw free throws, where he’s taking a solid 4.9 attempts per game.

Barnes, to some extent, is a scoring Swiss army knife. His 14.9 points per game might read as modest, and you could argue he could stand to see more attempts go through his hands, but the Kings need every single one of them to keep defenses from overloading on Fox and Sabonis.

The addition of Keegan Murray has also helped, as Murray is a high-volume shooter from the outside, further helping everyone to optimize spacing. It’s allowed more space for Barnes too, and it’s made the offense far more unpredictable.

But make no mistake. Without Barnes, the Kings wouldn’t be where they are. His frankly undervalued play is a big key to their success, and it’s why he’ll enter 2023 free agency as one of the more intriguing players on the market.

Barnes, currently earning a smidge over $18.3 million, should be in high demand given his plug-and-play capabilities. He’s going to turn 31 in May, so expect some major three-year offers from teams who think he can either take them over the top, or help them get to the postseason. The Kings themselves should be ready to pay up.

What’s Barnes’ price tag? Given both his durability, production, and somewhat crucial role to a successful offense, a contract averaging over $20 million shouldn’t be ruled out considering the inevitable cap rise in 2025. Even the 2023 salary cap is estimated to land at $134 million, over $11 million more than this year’s cap of $123 million.

As such, it’s entirely justified if Barnes and his camp ask for a raise. And if the Kings intend to keep being competitive, they should be first in line.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.