‘GTA VI’ Trailer Indicates Q1 2025 Release: Analysts

Topline

Monday’s trailer for the hotly-anticipated “Grand Theft Auto VI” video game excited not just prospective game players, but also Wall Street analysts covering the game’s publisher Take-Two Interactive Software, despite a Tuesday slump for shares of Take-Two.

GTA VI will hit consoles in 2025.

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Key Facts

Take-Two stock fell as much as 3% in Tuesday trading, a dip Stifel analysts led by Drew E. Crum attributed to potential “disappointment” from the teaser’s announcement that “Grand Theft Auto VI” won’t release until 2025, falling short of projections the game could come out in time for the 2024 holiday season.

But Crum raised his price target for Take-Two from $167 to $175 after the trailer, implying 12% upside from its $154 share price Tuesday, advising clients to buy the dip as Take-Two’s financial guidance strongly implies GTA VI will drop by March 2025.

The trailer “shows a game with quality beyond expectation despite prior leaks and high standards reserved for anything” from GTA maker and Take-Two subsidiary Rockstar Games, Oppenheimer analysts Martin Yang and Andrew Northcutt gushed in a note to clients, also concluding an early 2025 release is most likely though there’s “room” for a delay.

Deutsche Bank analyst Ben Soff concurred on the likely early 2023 release, estimating in a Monday note that GTA VI will drive more than $1 billion of incremental net bookings in its first year on the market, a potentially massive driver of sales growth considering Take-Two registered $5.3 billion in total net bookings last fiscal year.

Crucial Quote

“It is simply a shift rather than a reduction in expectations” for GTA VI based on it official 2025 release date, noted Raymond James analysts led by Andrew Marok. The analysts said the ”anticipated scale of the release when it does hit shelves” remains ”potentially massive.”

What To Watch For

Soff said, in addition to basics like release date and pricing, he’ll closely monitor Take-Two’s plans to integrate “Grand Theft Auto VI” into the lucrative, existent online platform buoyed now by 2013’s “Grand Theft Auto V,” the last installment in the debaucherous video game series. Soff said it will be “critical” for Take-Two to structure GTA 6’s multiplayer offerings “in a way that augments, and doesn’t disrupt” users who still play the fifth installment of the series, which has sold 190 million copies to date.

Big Number

52%. That’s how much shares of Take-Two have risen this year, outperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq’s 37% gain. The stock is up 16% just since the company said November 8 it would release the GTA VI trailer this month.

Chief Critic

“Grand Theft Auto” may have the admiration of Wall Street, but it has one notable detractor: The world’s richest person, Elon Musk. Musk posted on his X social media platform Monday he had “tried” playing GTA but he “didn’t like doing crime.”