FILE – New York Yankees’ Trent Grisham celebrates with teammates after hitting a two-run home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox in Chicago, Aug. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
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Not much more than some shadow-boxing has been going on in the early stages of MLB free agency. Perhaps the most significant development thus far has been the aceeptance of the qualifying offer by a record four free agents.
Thirteen players were extended qualifying offers, which guarantee draft pick compensation to the clubs that lose such players. This year, the qualifying offer guaranteed the player $22.025 million on a one-year contract, not an insignificant amount on a short-term deal. Still, players extended such offers are generally thought to be able to command more in terms of dollars and years on the open market.
This time around, a unique set of circumstances made the prospective free agents think twice about shopping their wares to the rest of the league.
The biggest macro-level factor in play is the state of the sport’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, which expires after the 2026 season. Will clubs be less likely to commit years and dollars this offseason when there is real doubt as to whether a full season will be played in 2027? And do players believe that a new labor agreement might include incentives for all 30 clubs to spend more on talent, and want to re-enter free agency next winter?
But on a micro level, perhaps these four players – Yankees’ CF Trent Grisham, Tigers’ 2B Gleyber Torres, Brewers’ RHP Brandon Woodruff and Cubs’ LHP Shota Imanaga – just might have somewhat simpler motives in play. They’ve had success for their current clubs, and all four teams made the playoffs in 2025 and are favorites to do so again in the short to intermediate term. The grass might not be greener on the other side of free agency. Let’s take a look at all four players:
TRENT GRISHAM
This might be the most interesting of the four situations, with perhaps a bit of ambivalence on the part of the club. Grisham, 29, is coming off of a 34 homer season, but there are warning signs within his offensive profile. His swing is totally grooved to lift and pull, he doesn’t hit for average and had all of nine doubles last season.
The Yanks have MVP Aaron Judge in RF, seem pretty committed to Jasson Dominguez in LF, and now have $22.025 million reasons to put Grisham in CF again. They would also like to bring back Cody Bellinger, who has some positional flexibility but is best in the outfield, plus OF prospect Spencer Jones. Not enough spots exist for all of those guys. I believe Jones still has a lot to prove in Triple-A, and the return of Grisham buys him time. The Yanks wisely were unwilling to extend Grisham for the long haul, and were probably expecting him to move on. His return changes their offseason calculus a bit, in ways that are to be determined.
GLEYBER TORRES
Interestingly, former Yankee Torres was in the same exact spot as Grisham a year ago and opted to enter free agency. One month younger than Grisham, the second baseman has had a much gentler career arc. He’s basically the same guy every season, a slightly above average hitter, but a good one for a middle infielder. His defense is solid but unspectacular, and one questions whether he will age well physically.
The free agent market richly and deservedly rewards shortstops, but is much more frugal with second basemen. A few years back, Torres might have assessed his situation differently and entered the market. Comerica Park used to be extremely pitcher-friendly, and the Tigers weren’t all that competitive. Now, fence modifications have made Comerica more neutral, and – at least as long as Tarik Skubal is around – the Tigers have settled in as a perennial playoff club. Torres decided that staying in Detroit for another year was a solid call.
BRANDON WOODRUFF
No, the Milwaukee Brewers are not known for spending a lot of money. But it would be more accurate to say that they’re not willing to guarantee large sums of money over a significant numbers of years. A big one-year investment is OK, for the right player. And given their history with Woodruff, he qualifies as the right guy.
A high-end ace before a serious 2023 shoulder injury, Woodruff – who turns 33 this offseason – signed a back-loaded deal that included a $20 million mutual option for 2026. They wound up giving him a little more than that in the form of the qualifying offer. This was the easiest to predict among these four situations. The club has a lot invested in getting Woodruff healthy and right, and the player loves playing for the only organization he has ever known. Who knows – the Brewers’ October could have been totally different had he not suffered a late-season lat injury once his shoulder had completely healed.
SHOTA IMANAGA
Honestly, I really didn’t envision Imanaga accepting a qualifying offer. The 32-year-old lefty has been a reliable presence atop the Cub rotation in his two seasons after signing as an international free agent from Japan. He was one of the best starters in the NL in his rookie season in 2024 before taking some backward steps last season.
Imanaga throws tons of strikes but has a couple of limitations that might give a team pause before tossing big dollars/years in his direction. First, he’s not particularly durable. He’s missed starts here and there though he has given the Cubs 318 innings in 2024-25. He’s averaged less than six innings per start, and the third time around the order hasn’t been kind to him. Perhaps more importantly, his floor is pretty low as he is a fairly significant fly ball guy – if his stuff deteriorates even a little, he could allow tons of damage. Still, given the premium paid for solid pitching in the free agent market, I thought a payday might await him. Perhaps he’s not planning on spending most of the next decade state-side, and/or is really comfortable in the Windy City.