Gov. Jim Justice Or Sen. Joe Manchin?

The West Virginia 2024 U.S. Senate race will make waves from the Atlantic shoreline to the Pacific Coast to the Gulf of Mexico — set up to match Governor Jim Justice, a Republican, and Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat.

The state’s business community is comfortable with Manchin, finding him accessible and friendly to many of their causes. Those same leaders have not enjoyed that kind of connectivity with Justice. But West Virginia business is losing its voice politically while the populist movement is getting louder and creating an ‘us versus them’ atmosphere.

It’s an odd evolution, given business creates jobs and pays taxes. Indeed, recently passed federal legislation like the infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act are responsible for attracting Berkshire Hathaway
BRK.B
, Nucor Corp., Omnis Sublimation Recovery, Form Energy, and Sparkz Technologies. Now, Terra Power has its eye on the state. But populism resonates with those who feel the political class has forgotten them.

Justice may have agreed to give those businesses some incentive money to recruit them — after the West Virginia Economic Development Office did the heavy lifting. But he has been critical of providing existing businesses other tax breaks: Justice toured the state vilifying companies that wanted tax relief on personal property such as equipment. At the same time, he had not paid his corporate taxes, causing Forbes to label him the Deadbeat Billionaire.

Justice is a walking contradiction: his coal interest epitomizes big business despite his criticisms of industry and the tax relief they want — the same type of populism Trump used to appeal to the working class. Remember that Trump was born into great wealth and lives at the Mar-a-Logo Club, and Justice is a former billionaire who owns the famed Greenbrier Resort.

For his part, Manchin has perfected the art of walking down the political middle, using that skill to bridge the divide on some issues between Republicans and Democrats. But in West Virginia’s 2024 general election, his opponent will portray him as a Democratic loyalist. This man voted twice to convict Trump and helped pass the infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act, moving the state’s economy forward with the support of many businesses.

Is The Labor Movement Still A Factor?

The matchup is reminiscent of political races between Governor Arch Moore and Jay Rockefeller, who served as governor and senator. In 1972, incumbent Governor Moore bumped off a young and aspiring Secretary of State Rockefeller in Round One. The two went at it again in 1980 in what was an aggressive campaign. Rockefeller, who had become the state’s governor in 1976, won Round Two.

But in those days, it was a classic race between business and labor interests. While the Deep South had flipped its political allegiances in the 1960s, West Virginia had remained a devout “blue” state, mainly because of its strong participation in the labor movement. But fast forward to 2012 and again to 2016: the state’s primary economic driver — coal — had, well, burned out. The country was becoming more environmentally conscious, and consumers demanded cleaner fuels.

In 2012, Obama lost all 55 counties in West Virginia. In 2016 and 2020, Trump got 68% of the vote.

“The evolution from blue to red is largely due to the decline of unions in the state, as the number of coal miners decreased and the influence of the United Mine Workers disappeared,” James Van Nostrand, professor of law at West Virginia University law school told this writer earlier. “So this traditional source of support for the Democratic party and its candidates ceases to be a factor in elections. The state is now starting to look more like its southern neighbors.”

“It is about improving the economics of the coal industry to save it,” he adds. “But this is coming at the expense of the labor movement.”

West Virginians need jobs. But they also need the government as a safety net and to protect their wellbeing: a sizable portion of the population, especially in coal-producing regions, receive federal help — everything from food stamps to welfare benefits to social security disability. Those 11,500 still laboring in the coal business — down from 125,000 in 1950 — want safe working conditions, good pay, and secure medical and retirement benefits.

And this is where Manchin has the stronger hand, authoring bills to help retired coal miners keep their health and pension benefits. Any political opponent will have difficulty trumping Manchin’s public service and his long-standing relationships.

Will Trump Be A Factor?

Manchin beat the state’s attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, in 2018 by winning business and labor support, overcoming the Trump factor: the United Mine Workers went all in for him while Manchin was ‘hand’s on’ with business, using all the levers at his disposal to help them expand. Can he do that in 2024?

According to the people this reporter has spoken with, populist politicians are proliferating faster than any group, and they are also encroaching on labor’s membership. They are appealing to their conservative social views and emphasizing the rights of individuals over corporations.

Manchin’s goal is to keep the working class in the Democratic camp by getting them to vote their pocketbooks — like beefing up mine safety laws, maintaining the prevailing wage, and eliminating the right-to-work law. The former refers to the pay rate contractors and vendors must offer their workers for government-run projects while the latter allows workers to opt out of union participation.

While Justice may not be as accessible or be one to get his hands dirty, he resonates with West Virginia’s voters who feel left out. However, he will have a primary contest. Rep. Alex Mooney has already declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate — a guy who endlessly humps Trump’s leg. Mooney won a bitter general election last fall by clinging to Trump and winning his endorsement.

Unlike Justice, Mooney is a lifelong bureaucrat and politician — an incognito wannabe who hates the government but loves being on the public’s payroll. Even worse, Mooney is the subject of two congressional ethics investigations that could land him in big trouble. A report by the Office of Congressional Ethics found “substantial reason to believe” that Mooney acted improperly by taking his family on an all-expenses-paid holiday to Aruba in 2021 and had his office staff do the prep work. HSP Direct LLC picked up the nearly $11,000 tab.

The ethics office is also investigating whether he illicitly used about $50,000 in campaign monies to pay for everyday meals and family outings. Mooney is contesting the allegations.

The most immediate Morning Consult poll shows Justice is ahead in the primary and general elections. While he will easily beat Mooney, Manchin could have more allure in the grand finale: if the sitting senator can corral the business and labor movement again, his odds pick up— all compounded by Trump’s legal problems and waning public support.