GOP Wave May Not Net As Many Seats As Prior Midterms—Here Are The Close Races To Watch

Topline

Republicans need to pick up just five seats to win majority control of the lower chamber, and final political forecasts predict they will gain up to 35, but the numbers aren’t as bad for Democrats as they might seem–the average loss for the president’s party in a midterm year is 27 seats, according to Politico.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) speaks during a rally at Nyack Veteran’s Memorial Park on October … [+] 29, 2022, in Nyack, New York.

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Key Facts

Republicans are likely to flip at least ten Democrat-held seats, while Democrats have the advantage in just two districts currently held by Republicans, according to Cook Political Report.

Among the 35 districts in Cook’s toss-up category, just 10 are held by Republicans.

Democrats have a slim 16% chance at maintaining majority control of the House, a steep decline from early October predictions that showed they had a 32% chance of holding control of the lower chamber, according to FiveThirtyEight.

President Biden’s low approval ratings and Americans’ concerns about the economy have driven voters to the right, with polls showing more Americans trust Republicans to handle economic issues, but the anticipated GOP takeover—and Biden’s 42% approval rating—are on par with three of the past four presidents, who lost more seats in their first midterm than Republicans are expected to gain on Tuesday.

Less than 24 hours out from Election Day, these are the House races to watch:

Nevada

Two of the three House seats controlled by Democrats are at risk of turning red, including the 1st District represented by five-term incumbent Dina Titus, who has just a 52% chance of beating Republican challenger Mark Robertson, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, while Rep. Susie Lee (D) in the 3rd District has a better shot–65%–at beating Republican April Becker to win a third term.

New York

Five of the ten House districts—four held by Democrats, in historically blue New York—are toss-ups, including the district represented by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, who is being challenged by Assemblyman Mike Lawler, though FiveThirtyEight predicts the Republican has just a 30% chance of winning.

Virginia

2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria—a former Navy commander who identifies with the district’s strong base of ex-military voters and gained national prominence in her role on the January 6 committee–has just a 51% chance of beating state Sen. Jen Kiggans (R), according to FiveThirtyEight.

North Carolina

In the 13th District currently held by Rep. Ted Budd (R), who is in a close race for a Senate seat, Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel has less than a 1% lead in polls over Republican Bo Hines, a former North Carolina State football player endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Michigan

7th District Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the first Democrat endorsed by GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, has a 69% chance of hanging on to her seat in the race against state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), who campaigned with former Vice President Mike Pence over the weekend.