Topline
Republicans’ hopes to win Florida’s most populous county were realized Tuesday, as both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) cruised to victory in Miami-Dade en route to statewide wins, in what could spell the end of decades of Democratic dominance in south Florida.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) waves during a news conference on September 22, 2022, in Miami. (AP … [+]
Key Facts
DeSantis held an 11.4-percentage-point lead over challenger and former Gov. Charlie Crist (D), while Rubio held a 9.5-point advantage over Rep. Val Demings (D) in Miami-Dade County on Tuesday night, with more than 93% of the estimated vote counted.
DeSantis lost Miami-Dade by more than 20 points when he was first elected governor in 2018, while Rubio lost by 11 points when he was reelected to the Senate in 2016.
The Miami-Dade vote typically skewed about 10 points toward Democrats compared to Florida as a whole in statewide races over the past decade, but on Tuesday, DeSantis and Rubio were only running about three points behind their dominant statewide percentages in the county.
Miami-Dade has not voted Republican in a major election (presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial) since the 2010 Senate race, an unusual three-person contest where Rubio captured 44.8% of the vote—but Tuesday was the first time Republicans won outright majorities in Miami-Dade since former Gov. Jeb Bush captured 53% of the vote in 2002.
Key Background
Former President Donald Trump made major inroads in Miami-Dade in 2020, surprising many political observers by only losing to President Joe Biden by 7.3 points after 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton walloped him there by almost 30 points. The massive shift in Miami-Dade comes as polls suggest Democrats are quickly losing support nationally among Latino populations, long a reliably blue voting demographic. Republicans have invested heavily in Miami-Dade since Trump’s surprising performance in 2020, and managed to connect with conservative communities of Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants, many of whom immigrated to the U.S. to escape socialist regimes.
What To Watch For
A Republican presidential nominee has not won Miami-Dade since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Further Reading
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Wins Re-Election (Forbes)
Democrats worry the GOP could win traditionally liberal Miami-Dade (Washington Post)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/11/08/miami-dade-goes-red-gop-scores-massive-wins-in-once-democratic-stronghold/