Goldman Sachs has quickly withdrawn a newly issued U.S. recession forecast following a sudden move by former President Donald Trump to ease up on proposed trade tariffs.
The investment bank had earlier flagged a 65% chance of a downturn within the next year, only to reverse course within hours.
On Wednesday, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team shifted to a recession baseline after new country-specific tariffs took effect. But less than an hour after that call, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was hitting pause on a broad set of reciprocal tariffs—excluding China—for 90 days, limiting new import duties to a 10% minimum.
Markets responded immediately, with stocks climbing on hopes of reduced trade tensions. By 2:10 p.m. in New York, Goldman reversed its stance, citing the White House’s new tone.
The firm clarified that while the 10% baseline and existing tariffs remain, the temporary halt on additional measures means the economic impact could closely mirror their prior, non-recessionary expectations.
The episode highlights the volatile nature of U.S. trade policy and its outsized influence on economic outlooks. For Goldman, what began as a warning of imminent economic slowdown became a case study in rapid recalibration.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/goldman-sachs-scraps-recession-warning-after-surprise-tariff-delay-from-trump/