Gold edges lower as global factors ease, Fed to be more measured

Gold retreats at the end of the week as the effect of Chinese stimulus fades and global central banks adopt a more cautious stance.
Stronger US labor market and economic growth data lower the chances of the Fed easing aggressively.
Gold price retreats as less dovish interest rate prospects and a stronger US Dollar are bearish.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower to trade in the $2.660s per troy ounce on Friday, as the impact of Chinese government stimulus starts to ebb and central banks globally adopt a less dovish stance.

In addition, better-than-expected data out of the US lowers the chances of the Fed making another aggressive 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November. This further weighs on Gold as expectations of interest rates falling at a slower pace suggest a high opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing asset. The USD is recovering too, adding to the precious metal’s headwinds.

Gold edges lower after making new record highs

Gold pulls back after touching a new record high of $2,685 on Thursday, as the effect of the extra 1 trillion CNY of stimulus announced by the Chinese Politburo appears to have been priced in and central banks globally tend to adopt a less dovish stance. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept rates unchanged at their meeting, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut rates by only 25 bps. A recent Reuters poll, meanwhile, showed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates by a modest 50 bps over the next six months.

In addition, the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates by half a percent at their meeting in November has eased after positive US macroeconomic data. US Initial Jobless Claims showed a decline to 218K in the week ending September 20, and the final estimate of Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remained in line with previous estimates at a fairly healthy 3.0% annualized. Further, US Durable Goods Orders beat estimates and overall recent data out of the US describes a soft landing for the economy that goes against market bets for aggressive monetary easing.

The probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the November Fed meeting has fallen back down to 50% from over 60% prior to the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Gold may also be seeing reduced safe-haven flows as fears the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah might spill over into a ground offensive fail to materialize. Although tensions remain high and a 21-day ceasefire deal put together by the Americans was rejected on Thursday, neither has the situation escalated either.

On Wednesday, the head of Israeli Defence Forces, Herzi Halevi, told his troops that they should prepare for a ground offensive on Lebanon. If such an invasion should take place, it would further ratchet up risk aversion and increase safe-haven flows into the yellow metal.

Technical Analysis: Gold pulls back from new all-time highs

Gold pulls back after hitting yet another all-time high of $2,685 on Thursday.

That said, it is overall still in an uptrend on a short, medium and long-term basis. Since it is a foundational principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend,” the odds favor even more upside for the yellow metal.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Gold is also now overbought, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator, which increases the chances of a deeper pullback evolving. It also advises traders not to add to their long positions. If Gold exits overbought, it will be a sign to close long positions and sell shorts, suggesting an even deeper correction is in the process of unfolding.

That said, RSI can remain overbought for fairly long periods of time in a strongly trending market, and if Gold breaks to higher highs, it will further reconfirm the metal’s uptrending bias. The next targets to the upside are the round numbers $2,700 and then $2,750.

If a correction evolves, firm support lies at $2,600 (September 18 high), $2,550 and $2,544 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the September rally).

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).