Global Carbon Emissions Showed No Signs Of Decline This Year, Scientists Warn

Topline

Global carbon emissions continued to rise this year and have shown no signs of slowing down, the Global Carbon Project said Thursday, as world leaders push for new initiatives to halt climate change at this week’s United Nations Climate Change Conference.

Carbon emissions rose to an all-time high in 2022.

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Key Facts

Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to total 40.6 billion tons this year, as emissions from fossil fuels rose 1% since 2021.

A few large carbon-emitting countries are expected to decline this year, including China (down 0.9%) and the European Union (down 0.8%), but the United States is projected to increase its emissions 1.5% and India is projected to grow 6%.

Corinne Le Quéré, a professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, suggested in a press release the rise in emissions is a result of global economies moving out of the pandemic, when demand for fuel—particularly for aviation—was far lower.

Should emissions continue to grow at this pace, the Global Carbon Project estimates there is a 50% chance that total global temperature increases will top 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next nine years—despite the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees.

By next year, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to be 50% higher than during pre-industrial levels.

Big Number

1.4 billion. That’s how many tons of carbon dioxide need to be cut each year from global emissions in order to reach zero emissions by 2050.

Crucial Quote

UN Secretary General António Guterres opened the climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, last week by warning world leaders that the Earth is on “a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” He added that the world is “in the fight of our lives, and we are losing.”

What To Watch For

President Joe Biden is expected to arrive at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Egypt on Thursday to discuss the Paris Agreement.

Key Background

The report by the Global Carbon Project’s science team—composed of scientists from the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia and the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich—is released as the UN’s two-week climate summit comes to a close. During the summit’s 2015 meeting, nations signed the Paris Agreement and agreed to cut carbon emissions by enough in order to keep the catastrophic effects of climate change at bay. Scientists have recently cast doubt over whether several countries will be able to meet the agreement’s landmark goal of holding temperatures to 1.5 degrees. New policies and increased efforts to develop renewable energy have improved projections, though they have not been sufficient, and the U.S briefly left the Paris Agreement in 2020 before returning in 2021. A recent U.N. report indicates global temperatures will increase by as much as 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.