Germany CPI inflation falls to 4.5% in September vs. 4.6% expected

Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 4.5% on a yearly basis in September from 6.1% in August, Destatis’ flash estimate showed on Thursday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 4.6%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching the market expectation and August’s increase.

The annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, dropped sharply to 4.3% from 6.4% in the same period.

Market reaction to German inflation report

The Euro preserved its strength despite the softer-than-forecast Greman inflation readings. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.4% on the day at 1.0540.

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	CAD	AUD	JPY	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.37%	-0.54%	-0.06%	-0.71%	-0.13%	-0.54%	-0.34%
EUR	0.36%		-0.19%	0.30%	-0.33%	0.23%	-0.15%	0.02%
GBP	0.54%	0.17%		0.47%	-0.14%	0.41%	0.05%	0.19%
CAD	0.07%	-0.29%	-0.48%		-0.64%	-0.05%	-0.45%	-0.28%
AUD	0.70%	0.33%	0.14%	0.63%		0.55%	0.19%	0.35%
JPY	0.11%	-0.23%	-0.43%	0.07%	-0.58%		-0.37%	-0.22%
NZD	0.50%	0.13%	-0.06%	0.44%	-0.18%	0.37%		0.16%
CHF	0.35%	-0.01%	-0.19%	0.30%	-0.34%	0.22%	-0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Economic Indicator

Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

What to expect in the next German inflation report?

The official data will be released by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis) on Thursday. The annual German Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 4.6% in September, down from a 6.1% increase reported in August. The monthly CPI inflation is set to increase at a steady rate of 0.3% in the reported period.

Germany’s annual HICP inflation is seen dropping sharply to 4.5% in September from 6.4% in August. The core HICP is likely to rise 0.3% in September, compared with a 0.4% acceleration in August.

Further cooldown in inflation in Europe’s largest economy is likely to hint at softer inflation readings in the bloc’s overall inflation data, which will be published on Friday.

The headline Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is expected to rise 4.5% YoY in September, a slowdown from August’s 5.2% increase. The Core HICP inflation, the gauge closely watched by the European Central Bank, is also seen lower at 4.8% in the said period as against a 5.3% increase seen in the previous month.

Commenting on inflation developments, Lagarde said that price growth is likely to remain “too high for too long” despite the recent decline. “Strong spending on holidays and travel and increasing wages were slowing the decline in price levels even as the economy stays sluggish”, she added. Therefore, it remains to be seen if the German and Eurozone inflation data underscore the hidden disinflationary signals or point to a renewed uptrend in inflation in the face of the recent surge in Oil prices.

The regional inflation data point could hint at the trend in German headline inflation in September. North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is the first German state to report September inflation readings and, as it is the most populous state, the reading can often be a signal of the trend in the figure for the whole of Germany.

Still, North-Rhine Westfalia figures don’t always work well as a forward-looking indicator. In August, inflation in this German state rose to 5.9% on year, up from 5.8% in July, signaling the possibility of an unexpected rise in overall German inflation. However, the nationwide figures eventually showed softer inflation figures as some other major states saw easing price pressures. For example, consumer prices in the German State of Bavaria rose by 5.9% YoY in August, the lowest inflation rate since February 2022 and easing from a 6.1% increase in the previous month. The annual inflation rate in the German state of Saxony ticked up to 6.8% in August 2023, from 6.7% in July.

For September, consumer prices in the German state of NRW rose by 0.2 % over the month in September and were up by 4.2 % YoY, the state’s statistics office said on Thursday.

Previewing the August inflation data, Deutsche Bank explains: “September preview: Headline and core inflation prints might drop substantially. Owing to the petering out of two larger base effects – stemming from last summer’s fuel discount and 9-Euro-ticket, we anticipate Germany’s CPI headline and core inflation rates to fall more substantially again in September.”

“In this context, we gauge that the above-mentioned two effects could have boosted the year-over-year prints between June and August in the order of up to ¾ pp,” analysts at Deutsche Bank noted.

As usual, Spain has already published its national inflation figures for August, providing clues about the direction of the whole Eurozone HICP data.

Spain’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% YoY in September, preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed on Thursday. The 12-month inflation was higher than the 2.6% rate in August and in line with the 3.5% expected.

When will the HICP inflation report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Germany’s preliminary HICP is due at 12:00 GMT. In the lead-up to the Eurozone inflation showdown, the Euro (EUR) is wallowing in six-month lows near 1.0550 against the US Dollar, as the Fed-ECB monetary policy and macroeconomic divergence are back in play.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to hike interest rates one more time this year while markets speculate that the September 25 basis points (bps) rate hike by the ECB will likely be the last one. Further, the Eurozone is on the brink of recession while the US economy has shown encouraging signs of resilience, based on the recent strong economic data.

A hotter-than-expected headline and core HICP inflation data could reinforce expectations for one more ECB rate hike by year-end. In such a case, EUR/USD could initiate a recovery toward the 1.0700 level. However, if the bloc’s inflation shows a quicker-than-expected decline, the main currency pair is likely to extend the downside toward 1.0400.

Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for the major and explains: “EUR/USD is on the verge of confirming a Death Cross, represented by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below the 200 DMA. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well within the oversold territory. Thus, the daily technical setup of EUR/USD suggests that a rebound could be in the offing before the next downtrend resumes.”

Dhwani also outlines important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The previous day’s high at 1.0575 is the first hurdle on the road to recovery, above which Euro buyers will challenge the 1.0600 hurdle. On the downside, the psychological barrier at 1.0450 could lend some support to the pair, below which a test of the 1.0400 round number cannot be ruled out.”

German economy FAQs

The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany’s economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany’s economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro’s value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro’s strength and perception in global markets.

Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the ‘Fiscal Compact’ following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.

Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.

German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond’s price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund’s price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.

The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-cpi-preview-inflation-set-to-ease-for-third-straight-month-despite-rising-oil-prices-202309280819