GBP/USD remains subdued for the third successive session, trading around 1.3150 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair struggles as the Pound Sterling (GBP) comes under strain after the United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves abandoned planned income-tax rises. The decision has raised questions about the UK’s fiscal outlook, despite the Office for Budget Responsibility lowering its budget deficit forecast to £20 billion from £35 billion. Reeves is still anticipated to pursue revenue through threshold changes and salary-sacrifice reforms, favoring a smaller-scale budget over significant tax increases.
Additionally, the British Pound continues to face downside pressure after softer economic data intensified bets on a December rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). The UK economy delivered only marginal growth in Q3, with GDP declining monthly in September. This week, traders’ attention will be on inflation figures, flash PMIs, and any indications of cooling momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors.
The US Dollar (USD) moves little as traders brace for a backlog of US data following the government’s reopening. The Greenback gained support amid declining US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets for December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that financial markets are now pricing in a 43% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, down from 62% probability that markets priced a week ago.
However, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the Fed should cut the interest rates when policymakers meet in December. Waller added that he’s grown concerned over the labor market and the sharp slowdown in hiring, according to a news report by Bloomberg.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.