LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Opponents Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett face off during the UFC It’s On Seasonal Press Conference at T-Mobile Arena on December 05, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Zuffa LLC
The first UFC fight card of the Paramount+ era takes place on Saturday, January 24 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. UFC 324, which is not a pay-per-view event, streams on Paramount+.
In the UFC 324 main event, former interim UFC lightweight champion Justin Gaethje faces Paddy Pimblett for the interim 155-pound title.
With the move to Paramount+ from pay-per-view, the UFC 324 main card is scheduled to begin at 9:00 p.m. ET, while the prelims will start at 7:00 p.m. ET.
We look at the opening betting odds and line movement for the UFC 324 main event battle between Gaethje and Pimblett before offering our pick and prediction about who will leave Las Vegas as the interim UFC lightweight champion.
UFC 324 Main Event Opening Odds And Betting Line Movement
When BetOnline first posted a betting line for the Gaethje vs. Pimblett matchup, Pimblett was the -185 betting favorite over the +160 Gaethje. Today, Pimblett is a slightly bigger favorite, coming in at -225 over Gaethje, who is currently listed as the +190 betting underdog.
UFC 324 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Opponents Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett face off during the UFC It’s On Seasonal Press Conference at T-Mobile Arena on December 05, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Zuffa LLC
When Justin Gaethje (26-5) joined the UFC in 2017 he had a perfect record of 17-0. Leading up to that signing, Gaethje had won the World Series of Fighting lightweight title and then defended the belt five times. All six of his title fights under the WSOF banner ended by knockout.
Gaethje’s first fight with the UFC came in July 2017, when he met Michael Johnson in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter 25 finale card. Expectations were high for that matchup, and Gaethje delivered, picking up a second-round TKO win over Johnson and earning “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night” bonuses for a contest that won several “Fight of the Year” polls for 2017.
Every UFC fight Gaethje has been involved in since has been viewed with anticipation as he has one of the most fan-friendly styles in the history of not just the UFC but all of MMA. Gaethje might not win every time he steps into the octagon, but he is a fighter always looking to earn a stoppage win and entertain the fans. His 14 fight-night bonus awards in 14 UFC outings can attest to that.
Gaethje won the interim UFC lightweight crown in May 2020 with a knockout win over Tony Ferguson. However, he failed to unify the belts, losing to then-champion Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission in October of that year. Gaethje also fell short in his second try at winning the UFC 155-pound belt, dropping a submission to Charles Oliveira for the vacant title in May 2022.
Gaethje bounced back from that loss with his majority decision victory over Fiziev at UFC 286. A fight that earned both men “Fight of the Night” honors. Garthje’s most recent win was his “Performance of the Night” bonus-winning outing over Poirier.
Gaethje has 20 career knockout wins, one submission victory, and he’s been on the right side of five decisions. The former BMF champ’s career losses have come by knockout (three) and submission (two).
Gaethje last fought in March 2025 when he defeated Rafael Fiziev by decision at UFC 313. After the win, Gaethje threatened to retire if he did not get a title fight. With UFC lightweight champ Ilia Topuria on the shelf, he gets that fight at UFC 324.
Paddy Pimblett (23-3) is a former Cage Warriors lightweight champion. He has slowly worked his way up the UFC rankings since making his promotional debut in September 2021. Now 7-0 with the UFC, Pimblett is coming off the biggest win of his career, an April 2025 TKO win over Michael Chandler at UFC 314.
Pimblett had a successful run with the Cage Warriors promotion before he joined the UFC in 2021. During his time with Cage Warriors, which spanned 2013 through 2021, Pimblett won and defended the CW featherweight title and fought for that promotion’s lightweight crown.
Pimblett has been a fan favorite since he made his UFC debut and while some have been critical of the matchmaking the UFC have provided for Pimblett, something he addressed at the UFC 314 pre-fight press conference.
Gaethje enters UFC 324 as the No. 4 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings, while Pimblett checks in at No. 5.
UFC 324 Main Event: Gaethje Vs. Pimblett Picks And Predictions
It’s hard to look at Paddy Pimblett’s UFC run and not see that he has been the recipient of favorable matchmaking. The UFC has given Pimblett winable fights against aging opponents. To his credit, Pimblett has made the most of those opportunities, going unbeaten during his time with the promotion. At UFC 324, Pimblett is once again getting a fight against an older fighter whose best days are behind him in Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje is a tough opponent, but he is no longer the knockout threat he once was, and he is not far removed from his devastating KO loss to Max Holloway.
With Gaethje being a decent underdog, a betting pick for him to win by knockout is not out of line, especially with how little Pimblett protects his chin. However, overall, Pimblett has more routes to victory, especially if the UFC 324 matchup reaches the championship rounds. If Pimblett gets past the second stanza, the betting pick is a Pimblett submission win at UFC 324.