In a sane world, opening days after Avatar: The Way of Water wouldn’t be a death sentence for Shazam: Fury of the Gods. Yes, it’s obvious why Warner Bros. Discovery moved David F. Sandberg’s DC Films sequel up to December 21 and pushed James Wan’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom to March 23, 2023. One film is a mega-bucks sequel to a $1.148 billion-grossing franchise-starter, one that earned $298 million in China no less, and the other is a well-reviewed and well-received $90 million horror fantasy/foster family drama that earned $139 million domestic and $366 million worldwide, including just $43 million in China. If Shazam 2, again starring Zachary Levi, Asher Angel, Jack Dylan Grazer and Grace Fulton (among others) and now bringing Helen Mirren, Lucy Liu and Rachel Zegler to the party as added-value elements, is going to be a breakout sequel, it can still do so amid a busy but beneficial Christmas season.
While no one expects Shazam: Fury of the Gods to match Avatar: The Way of Water, there’s no dishonor in second place if the grosses are big enough. Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $1.33 billion in December of 2017 while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned $962 million and The Greatest Showman earned $434 million. Bumblebee and Mary Poppins Returns earned $471 million (including, to be fair, $171 million in China) and $350 million while Aquaman was swimming past $1.1 billion. Even back in 2009, Sherlock Holmes topped $525 million and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel earned $443 million in the same weeks that Avatar was earning $2.8 billion global. And, yes, classic example, 25 years ago, Titanic earned $1.8 billion while Tomorrow Never Dies earned $333 million and MouseHunt earned $122 million. If the industry has truly healed, then Avatar 2 and Shazam 2 should both earn “good enough” global earnings.
The first Shazam, which I’d still argue is the best DC Films flick (although on some days It’s a four-way tie between Shazam, Wonder Woman, Aquaman and Birds of Prey), was legging along just fine until Avengers: Endgame opened with a colossal (even by pre-release guestimates) $1.2 billion worldwide. Come what may, Shazam is exactly the kind of film that gets discovered or rediscovered in post-theatrical and thus gains more fans who show up on opening weekend (or, for Christmas, sometime in the first ten days or so) for the follow-up. Think, offhand, Pitch Perfect, Austin Powers, John Wick, Scream and (relatively speaking) Batman Begins. Moreover, while I don’t know the budget for this follow-up, I must presume that grossses on par with Bumblebee, The Greatest Showman or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($390 million in 2018) will be “good enough.” Speaking of which, Across the Spider-Verse is almost a surefire breakout sequel.
When you have two weeks of weekdays that play like weekends, popular, family-friendly flicks can score right alongside each other. The trailer emphasizes the whole “all the kids have powers now” hook and will play fine with kids showing up to DC League of Super-Pets next weekend. Everything looks colorful and gee-whiz entertaining, although I hope we don’t lose the authentic melancholy (“like Antwone Fisher with superpowers”) and Amblin-level horror that made the first film such a thrill. The monologue almost reads as a metaphor for Shazam’s smaller-budgeted existence in a world of mega-budgeted superhero movies. There’s quite a bit of razzle-dazzle on display amid this superpowered family feud. Granted, considering the world as it exists and the admittedly intense competition from the James Cameron sequel, this is a case where a global total is merely on par with its predecessor, again assuming it’s good and pleases the crowds, counts as a relative win.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2022/07/23/box-office-why-shazam-fury-of-the-gods-can-thrive-alongside-avatar-2/