Fundamental analysis outlies the path for Nvidia stock to $200

Perhaps the most anticipated report in Q2 earnings season is Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA), which is set to be announced on August 28, which will, in addition to revealing earnings, also shed more light on the speculated delay of Blackwell GPU.

However, some analysts believe that the concerns over potential delay are blown out of proportion, as Rosenblatt analysts maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia with an unchanged price target of $200 for NVDA shares, anticipating the company will exceed expectations in its July quarter report and raise its October quarter guidance. 

A key factor to watch is the potential constraints on Nvidia’s Hopper platform, which could impact the company’s performance. However, despite these constraints, Nvidia’s overall position remains strong, with significant demand for its products driving momentum.

Potential Blackwell delay shouldn’t be much of an issue for Nvidia

The upcoming ramp of Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture is a significant factor for the company in 2025. 

While some delays in specific stock-keeping units (SKUs) are anticipated in the early stages of the Blackwell rollout next year, Rosenblatt believes these delays will have a minimal impact on Nvidia, given the current supply constraints. 

“A few months’ potential delay in Blackwell next year should have a limited impact on Nvidia in what appears to be a significantly constrained environment.”

The focus will be on how Nvidia navigates these challenges and the potential implications for its competitive positioning and packaging technology scalability.

New additions from Nvidia should help bridge the gap

Rosenblatt highlights a mid-cycle boost for Nvidia’s Hopper platform as hyperscalers transition to liquid-cooled rack-scale implementations, driven by densification efforts from companies like Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI).

Contrary to earlier concerns, Rosenblatt does not foresee a gap between the Hopper and Blackwell platforms. 

Additionally, Nvidia’s new SpectrumX Ethernet switch within its networking segment is expected to be a significant growth driver in FY25, reinforcing the firm’s $200 price target based on an approximately 60x price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.

NVDA stock price chart

One of the best performers in 2024, Nvidia stock has added 156.88% to its value since January first.

NVDA shares lost 3.70% of their value in the most recent trading session and closed at $123.74, compared to gains of 1.58% in the previous five trading days.

Despite the swing in the past month, which saw NVDA shares erase almost 20% of their value, this semiconductor stock quickly recovered in the subsequent sessions, showcasing its robust fundamentals.

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