Topline
Initial polling data from France’s runoff election Sunday indicate French President Emmanuel Macron will win a second five-year term, fending off his competitor Marine Le Pen in an election that holds international consequence given the foreign policy differences between the centrist Macron and the far-right Le Pen.
French President Emmanuel Macron waves at supporters on Sunday.
Key Facts
Exit polls from French pollster Ipsos show Macron won 58.2% of the vote compared to Le Pen’s 41.8%.
Le Pen conceded defeat shortly after the initial projections were released at 2 p.m. ET, or 8 p.m. local time, handing Macron the victory.
Macron and Le Pen triggered a runoff election because neither candidate earned a simple majority of votes in the first round of France’s presidential elections April 10, capturing 27.85% and 23% of all votes, respectively.
Key Background
La République En Marche! party member Macron and National Rally party member Le Pen also squared off in the 2017 runoff election, which Macron won by a 66.1%-33.9% margin. Macron faced stiffer-than-expected competition from Le Pen this year as an increasing share of voters sided with Le Pen’s nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments compared to Macron’s largely pro-European Union policies and international focus. Le Pen has said she wants France to pull out of NATO’s integrated command and to ban Muslim women from wearing headscarves in public, and has accused Macron of acting in the best interest of the EU, not France. The Russian invasion of Ukraine played a key role in the election, as Macron has attacked Le Pen’s prior support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and ties to the Russian leader, though Le Pen and Macron have each condemned Russia’s invasion. Macron has engaged in consistent diplomacy with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky leading up to and during the war, and has faced some backlash abroad himself for his continued communications with Putin.
Surprising Fact
Macron is the first French president to win re-election since 2002.
Tangent
Experts had warned a Le Pen victory may destabilize markets given the uncertainty it may pose to France’s international and EU ties. Barclays economists estimated a Le Pen win would cause French equity markets to fall by 5% or more. Ariane Hayate, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris, told Bloomberg a Le Pen win would be a “terrible day for markets,” saying French 10-year bond yields “could go through the roof.” Michael Hewson, CMC Markets’ chief market analyst, told CNN, “It could be bigger than Brexit. It could be bigger than Trump, if Le Pen prevails.”
Further Reading
Investors Set on Macron Victory Are Vulnerable to Le Pen Shock (Bloomberg)
Russia ties haunt far-right candidate Le Pen as France gears up for election day (CNBC)
French election could be a bigger shock to markets than Brexit or Trump (CNN)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/04/24/french-president-macron-poised-to-win-re-election-against-challenger-le-pen-polls-show/