Four Starts In The Wildly Inconsistent Year Of Yankees’ Domingo German

When you look at it from a seasonal perspective, the Yankees’ Domingo German has been a pretty average starting pitcher. Through Monday, his record stands at 5-5 and he’s posted a 108 ERA-, a 109 FIP-, though he has been a bit better according to my batted ball-based proxy, “Tru” ERA-, at 94. Looking at it from a career perspective, it’s about the same situation – a 31-26 record with a 103 ERA- and 103 FIP-.

He sure does have a circuitous way of arriving at the midpoint of the major league starting pitcher population, however. How many 31-26 pitchers have a 18-4 record on their resume, like German’s signature 2019 season? And how many pitchers with almost exactly average seasonal statistics through 16 starts have thrown a perfect game?

German’s career has had many ups and downs, on and off the field. Most notably, he was suspended for 81 games in 2019-20 for domestic violence. This season, all of the ups and downs have come on the field. Let’s take a start by start look at his last four outings to get a feel for what Yankee fans go through when he toes the rubber.

June 16, 15-5 Loss to Red Sox, 2 IP-7 H-7 R-7 ER-2 BB-1 BB

German stuck around long enough to throw only 56 pitches on this night, and only induced two swings and misses. That 3.6% whiff rate is way below his seasonal 13.7% mark. His go-to pitch, his curve, was missing in action. He only missed one bat on 18 tries (5.6% whiff rate, way below his seasonal 19.7% mark), allowing three doubles and a homer.

All of that said, German was plenty unlucky vs. the Red Sox as well. He allowed seven batted balls to be put in play with a launch angle higher than 5 degrees – and none were converted into outs. Six of the seven went for extra-base hits, including a pair of sub-100 mph fly balls.

This might also be a good time to talk about spin rates. They’re particularly applicable with regard to German, who was suspended for 10 games this May for using illegal substances to raise them. In this start, German’s changeup, curve ball and four-seam spin rates were higher than any other during this four-start stretch, including the perfect game.

June 22, 10-2 Loss to Mariners, 3 1/3 IP-8 H-10 R-8 ER-2 BB-4 K

German threw 93 pitches on this night, essentially taking one for the team and staying in as long as possible despite a horrendous first couple of innings. The bat-missing was more acceptable on this night (12 swings and misses, 12.9% whiff rate) – but that’s about the only positive I can find.

At least he recorded two outs out on nine fly balls or line drives – hitters went 14 for 16 in those categories over this and his previous start. While German did throw a high percentage of his pitches from the stretch in these two starts (61 of 149, 40.9%), I don’t think we can blame his poor performance on this. Why not? Well, he allowed four homers in this outing, and all were with the bases empty. And the Mariners attacked his entire repertoire, hitting two bombs off of his four-seamer and one apiece off of his curve and sinker.

On June 16, he wasn’t good, but was mostly unlucky. This time out, he was just plain bad.

June 28, 11-0 Win Over Athletics, 9 IP-0 H-0 R-0 ER-o-BB-9 K – Perfect Game

And then this happens. There were a couple of notable pitch selection developments in this game. German obviously felt that his curve ball was working and rode it harder than usual, throwing it 51.5% of the time in his 99-pitch gem. Also, he abandoned his sinker, throwing it only once.

Some no-hitters look and feel pretty lucky, with lots of line drives and well-hit fly balls that just keep finding the fielders. Not this one.

Of the 18 batted balls allowed by German, only two were line drives, and neither were hit over 80 mph. The harder of the two, hit by Esteury Ruiz to shortstop Anthony Volpe was one of only two legitimate shots at a hit by the A’s on the night. The other was a 106 mph ground ball rocket hit by Seth Brown in the 5th inning. The rest were cans of corn and weak ground balls.

I put all of the batted balls in this game into my “Tru” ERA- generator, and German notched a 10 “Tru” ERA- for this outing. That’s about as low as you can go. For comparison’s sake his June 16 start checks in at 217, and June 22 at 259.

July 3, 6-3 Win Over Orioles, 4 1/3 IP-9 H-3 R-2 ER-0 BB-5 K

Lastly, a pretty unlucky outing. 11 batted balls at 5 degree launch angles or higher, 9 hits, all but one a single. The one huge negative in this outing is the high number of line drives allowed (7). That said, German didn’t allow a fly ball at 100 mph or higher, yet the Orioles went 3 for 4 with two singles and a double in the air.

Allowing nine hits in 4 1/3 innings sure doesn’t look good, but the fly balls and grounders he yielded should have been harmless, and even the liners should have yielded less damage than they did. German’s “Tru” ERA- on this night was a solid 80.

Pitch selection-wise, he again stayed away from his sinker, not throwing a single one in this outing. Interestingly, his spin rates were the lowest across all pitch types in this four-start stretch.

SUMMARY

So, what is Domingo German? Honestly, he’s a pretty average pitcher with upside, as his rollercoaster results seem to show. How average? He induces more popups than most pitchers, but compensates by allowing more line drives. Both his K and BB rates are in the average range. Ditto his average exit speed allowed.

No pitcher with 135 or more innings pitched in 2022 threw his curve ball more than German’s 2023 41.4% usage rate. Pitchers with great fastballs in their hip pocket tend to be able to whip them out at any time, while curve and slider artists tend to have more uneven results.

Still, it’s pretty amazing to be able to see the alpha, omega and everything in between that a pitcher is capable of in a single four-start stretch. German arguably pitched one of the greatest games ever pitched on June 28. Yes, it was the A’s, but their historical badness is on the run prevention, not the run scoring side.

In the other three starts, he wasn’t good – but was even more unlucky. Add it all up, and he’s average in so many respects. Ironically, his best stat might be his 84 component ERA, which is based on his actual results allowed, not accounting for sequencing. This suggests that German’s whole isn’t as good as the sum of his parts, which I think might be the most accurate conclusion of all.