Four Days After A Ukrainian Drone Assault, Russia’s Black Sea Flagship Is Still Afloat

The Ukrainian drone assault on Sevastopol, the home port of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, may have damaged one of the fleet’s two best frigates—potentially the flagship—but it definitely didn’t sink either of the vessels.

Commercial satellite imagery from Tuesday confirms that both of the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates are afloat and pierside at the port in Russian-occupied Crimea. If there’s damage to either of the 409-foot, missile-armed frigates—currently the most powerful ships in the roughly 30-strong Black Sea Fleet—it’s not visible from above.

If the frigates both escaped damage, it probably was a matter of luck. The video feed from one of the apparently explosives-laden unmanned surface vessels—in essence, a remote-controlled speedboat—shows the USV speeding to within a few feet of one of the frigates before the feed goes dead.

Russian media confirmed damage to one support vessel in the Saturday strike, which apparently involved drone aircraft in addition to the robotic boats.

If Admiral Makarov indeed avoided damage, it would be the second time the frigate—which took on the Black Sea Fleet’s flag following the April sinking of the missile-cruiser Moskva by Ukrainian missiles—defied expectations. Back in May, there were persistent rumors the Ukrainians had hit Admiral Makarov with an anti-ship missile. Those rumors turned out to be untrue.

There are three likely outcomes from the Saturday drone assault. That the USV struck the frigate and inflicted damage that’s not yet visible in public imagery. That the USV struck the frigate and failed to inflict any damage. Or that the USV somehow failed to strike the frigate despite coming very, very close.

An unnamed U.S. Defense Department official for their part was coy. “We do assess that there were explosions there [in Sevastopol] but I’m not going to have a damage assessment,” they said on Monday.

Analysts expect additional information soon. The Tuesday imagery hints at possible damage to one of the frigates. It’s customary in the Russian navy to moor undamaged ships perpendicularly to a pier, a practice called “Mediterranean mooring.” One of the frigates that’s visible in the satellite imagery is Med-moored.

The other is tied up parallel to the pier. And there’s a large crane alongside. The parallel mooring and crane could be evidence that the vessel suffered damage and is undergoing repairs. Of course, it’s also possible the ship is intact and the crane simply is shifting supplies.

Replenishing a large warship might take a couple of days, at most. If a week from now the frigate still is parallel to the pier with a crane nearby, that would be a strong signal that the vessel suffered damage.

The Ukrainian armed forces shouldn’t despair. Merely infiltrating Sevastopol and even nearly striking the Black Sea Fleet’s most important warship represents a major victory for the Ukrainians.

Months ago they proved they can sink even the most powerful Russian warship if the ship strays into the western Black Sea, where Ukraine’s anti-ship missiles can reach.

Now they’ve proved they can threaten Russian warships inside the perimeter of the ships’ own home port. The Russian Black Sea Fleet isn’t safe anywhere near Ukraine.