Fortunate Minnesota Vikings Take Advantage Of Campbell’s Coaching Blunder

Analytics has taken on a vital role in all sports over the past two decades, and its position in the NFL is undeniable.

Coaching decisions based on analytics have led coaches to go for it in fourth-down situations or attempt field goals when previous generations of coaches would have gladly punted and let their defense take the field.

Many of these decisions have resulted in higher scoring and a more exciting brand of football, but that doesn’t mean it’s always the proper decision to attack on fourth-down plays.

This was the case for both Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and Detroit Lions boss Dan Campbell in their Week 3 meeting at U.S. Bank Stadium. Both men were guilty of making reckless decisions on fourth-down plays, and Campbell’s decision to attempt a 54-yard field goal with 1:14 left propelled the Vikings to a come-from-behind 28-24 victory.

At the time, the Lions held a 24-21 lead as they faced a 4^th-and-4 situation from the Minnesota 36. A field goal off the foot of PK Austin Seibert would have extended the lead to six points, but the Vikings would still be able to win the game with a touchdown and an extra point.

The prudent play would have been to punt the ball and pin the Vikings inside the 10 yard line. That was not considered by Campbell. The Lions had been successful on 4-of-6 fourth-down attempts throughout the game, but Campbell still opted for the field goal attempt.

Seibert’s kick never had a chance as it quickly sliced off to the right, giving the Vikings possession on their own 44.

Campbell was angry with himself after the game, saying he should have attempted to convert the fourth-down play into a game-clinching first down.

“I freakin’ regret my decision there at the end,” Campbell said. “I should have gone for it on fourth down. I told the team that we should’ve gone for it. So, go ahead.”

The Vikings took advantage of the gaffe. After an incomplete pass on first down, quarterback Kirk Cousins hit wide receiver K.J. Osborn with back-to-back 28-yard receptions. The last of those saw Osborn cruise into the end zone with just 45 seconds remaining.

O’Connell was jubilant on the sidelines, and he accepted the jump of injured running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder) into his arms. Since his team was able to fend off a further thrust by the Lions, it meant he had recorded his second victory in his first three games.

O’Connell should consider himself very lucky, and not simply because Campbell had played a key part in gifting the Vikings the game. O’Connell made several questionable decisions throughout the game, and two of them involved attempting 56-yard field goals when punting would have been more beneficial to his team.

Vikings PK Caleb Joseph pushed both of those long FG attempts wide to the right, giving the Lions short fields to work with in both the first and third quarters. On each of those occasions, the Lions were able to turn those possessions into touchdowns.

The Vikings were 6-point favorites going into the game, but at no point were they even close to covering the spread. Those who had backed the Vikings based on their homefield advantage, their previous victory over the Green Bay Packers and high-priced offensive personnel that include Cousins, Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen were disappointed that the Vikings were forced to play come-from-behind football against a team that they regularly dominate.

The Vikings own the all-time series edge 81-40-2.

O’Connell admitted that his team is not where it needs to be if it is going to continue to stack victories. His main focus was on the way the team ran its plays, but not the fourth-down strategies that were employed on the errant FG attempts.

“Any new system you’re in,” O’Connell said, “you have to get the kinks out, understand it a little bit better so you’re not just running routes and plays designed a certain way. But running it, feeling comfortable doing it and adjusting within those plays. With time, it gets more comfortable.”

The Vikings were able to come away with the victory on a day when superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson was double-teamed throughout. Jefferson caught just three passes for 14 yards. He is likely to receive extra attention from defenses throughout the season, O’Connell needs to spend his time figuring out how to get him the ball.

If Jefferson can come close to the form he had in Week 1 against the Packers when he caught 9-184-2, it will result in a much more dependable way to win games than depending on opposing coaches to make heedless decisions when the game is on the line.