For Willie Cauley-Stein, An NBA Career Hangs In The Balance

Can a player still have potential after seven years in the NBA? If so, free agent center Willie Cauley-Stein may have potential.

Where once he was a high-lottery pick, Cauley-Stein is now out of the league, and has been falling steadily down the ziggurat for the last few years. Career per-game averages of 8.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 0.8 blocks sound pretty good, and the more advanced metrics of +23.3 career Win Shares and a +4.4 VORP rating do, too. When further viewed in the context of his agile 7-foot frame, while still aged only 28, this looks like the profile of an NBA rotation player.

Nonetheless, in three years, Cauley-Stein has gone from being an 81-game starter to a man out of the league, on multiple occasions.

Waived by the Dallas Mavericks in January, Cauley-Stein’s only other contract to date was a 10-day deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, one that was terminated after nine days. And as the bulk of this year’s free agency movement is already behind us, Cauley-Stein is again unsigned. With others such as Montrezl Harrell, LaMarcus Aldridge, Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris still on the market as well, there is nothing to suggest that a second NBA return is imminent, or even going to happen at all.

Cauley-Stein has had some extenuating circumstances over the past couple of seasons that have led to this loss of momentum. He opted out of the bubble to be at the birth of his child, had a thumb issue in 2020/21, and then in 2021/22, missed a couple of games due to sickness before missing the next six weeks with a personal matter.

None of those seem to be his fault, merely circumstances that can befall us all. They have however in combination meant that he has now been passed over three times in the last three years in favour of Marquese Chriss (whom the Mavericks cut him to create a roster spot for), DeAndre Jordan (who the 76ers terminated his 10-day deal for despite Jordan’s limited effectiveness) and Justinian Jessup (drafted with the 51st overall pick in 2020 that the Golden State Warriors traded him for in January 2020, months after landing him as a free agency “steal”).

For those fringe NBA pieces to still be ahead of Cauley-Stein in the pecking order, despite what looks like a useful combination of production and body type, there must therefore be something flawed about that production. And the tale of the tape confirms that, especially on defense.

The hallmark of Cauley-Stein’s NBA career to date has been inconsistency, both in terms of effort and results. It too often feels as though he always has a great game or a bad one, with little in between. In the good games, Cauley-Stein gets himself at the rim, rolls, hits a few foul line jump shots, works as a high-low passer and disrupts in the passing lanes very well for a centre. In the bad ones, he does not do much at all.

Cauley-Stein has all too often not done enough work to defend the paint and the rim. He drops his hands, is spotty with his second efforts, and often eschews the more physical side of the game. Over the past couple of seasons, Cauley-Stein has been used (and seemingly sought to be) less of an offensive player, to the betterment of his efficiency, yet the defensive effectiveness remains spotty, when it need not be.

Nevertheless, what may give Cauley-Stein residual “potential” as he enters his athletic prime is the fact that, once upon a time, he really was a tantalising defensive prospect. You have to go back to before his NBA career, but in college, Cauley-Stein flashed all the tools.

At Kentucky, he was a defensive role player extraordinaire. He contested everything, usually without fouling, using his length to deflect everything, being disruptive in the passing lanes and on any attempts over the top. He anticipated, used his hands, rotated and took charges, and while he did not routinely box out and needed to develop better core strength, he used his length, mobility and hustle to rebound outside of his area.

Indeed, the mobility was the highlight. For a 7-footer, Cauley-Stein moved his feet very well on the perimeter, to the point where at times he was getting put into defensive assignments on opposing wings by design. With his hands and help, Cauley-Stein was so good on the perimeter that he would in theory make everything switchable in the NBA, where such complex schemes were far more prevalent. But in practice, the defensive motor has been easing off for eight years. Rather than be the crux of such a unit, he has been at best a peripheral piece.

Those teams that like reclamation projects and “redraft” players – see, for example, the Detroit Pistons and their targeting of Kevin Knox/Marvin Bagley III/Josh Jackson types – could potentially accrue some minimum-salary value from Cauley-Stein, whose career should be far more secure than it currently is on his talent profile alone. He can play.

With better buy-in, better health and better luck, he would never have fallen out in the first place. However, with his age now working against him rather than for him, those of us still holding out hope for Willie Cauley-Stein’s NBA career must accept it could be now or never.