Florida Could Face Its First Hurricane Of The Year As Soon As Tuesday

Topline

Tropical Storm Idalia will likely become a hurricane before hitting parts of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, marking the first Atlantic hurricane of the year to hit the U.S, though officials say it’s too early to pinpoint exactly where the hurricane will go and what its impact will be.

A first responder with Orange County Fire Rescue makes her way through floodwaters looking for … [+] residents of a neighborhood needing help in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Orlando, Fla. Florida is preparing for its first potential hurricane this week as Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to worsen and hit the state as soon as Tuesday. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Key Facts

The National Hurricane Center said Sunday it’s likely the storm will turn to a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, presenting “an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge,” flooding and winds throughout parts of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle beginning Tuesday.

As of Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Idalia had 40-mile-per-hour winds and was slowly moving north about 80 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico; it’s expected to hit some of the Yucatán Peninsula and western Cuba on Sunday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties—including on the Panhandle and in the Tampa area—ahead of Idalia reaching the state on Saturday, recommending Floridians “have a plan and a stocked supply kit.”

In a statement Sunday, DeSantis said it could arrive in Florida as a category two hurricane, which the National Hurricane Center says has extremely dangerous winds that will cause extensive damage and can result in “near-total power loss” for days or weeks.

Crucial Quote

“Anybody on this Gulf Coast, certainly from Tampa all the way up to places like Bay County, you should absolutely be very vigilant right now, you should be following the track of the storm, you should just be making your preparations,” DeSantis said in a Sunday press conference.

Big Number

14. That’s how many named storms happened in last year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of the 14 named storms, eight became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes, meaning they had winds of at least 111 miles per hour. Last September, Hurricane Ian made landfall on the Gulf Coast and cut across Florida, killing over 100 people statewide and causing catastrophic flooding in some areas. Last year was very close to a typical hurricane season, which has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

What To Watch For

Storm surge and hurricane watches related to Tropical Storm Idalia could go into effect for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Key Background

Earlier in the year, meteorologists from Colorado State University predicted the first below-average hurricane season in years because of the El Niño climate pattern, but they said they had lower confidence in that prediction than normal because of the warming ocean water. On August 3, CSU experts changed their tune despite a slow start to the hurricane season, and warned that the record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic could actually lead to an above-average number of major storms. In the early August predictions, they estimated there would be 18 named tropical storms and hurricanes this season, nine of which will strengthen into hurricanes—including four that become major hurricanes. The NOAA also upped its likelihood of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season from 30% to 60% this month because of the warming ocean temperatures and the ongoing El Niño weather pattern. NOAA’s updated prediction was just slightly higher than CSU’s, estimating there would be between 14 and 21 named tropical storms, six to 11 of which could become hurricanes. So far this year, just two Atlantic tropical storms have reached hurricane strength: One didn’t make landfall, and the other hit the island of Hispaniola as a tropical storm before veering into the Atlantic and turning into a hurricane. The peak of the hurricane season is typically on September 10, and most hurricane activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October, according to NOAA.