Few People Wearing Masks On Airplanes Just Weeks After Mandate Removal

In mid-April, a judge in Florida effectively cancelled the Federal mandate to wear masks on airplanes. Almost immediately, all airlines dropped the requirement. In the first week or so, 50%-75% of customers were still wearing masks even though airlines made it clear in their announcements that they were not required. This led some, including me, to think that this might be the way things were for a while as many people, making their own choice, would still choose to mask up on an airplane.

Well, now just six weeks after the mandate removal, it is hard to find many masks on airplanes, based at least on my newest sampling of flights. Even in mask-friendly cities like Washington and Boston, the masks have almost vanished in the planes and in the airports. This has a few interesting implications:

Airlines Might Be Blamed If New Upticks Occur

Despite the fact that airplanes have always provided a lower virus transmission rate than many other places where people gather, the closeness of people and the inability to walk away still makes people nervous about them. Fortunately, airplanes were never identified as places were many people caught Covid. The airports always seemed a bit riskier, given that the airflow and filtering aren’t the same as inside the aircraft itself.

If a new uptick in case counts happens, or even worse an uptick that is associated with more hospitalization or deaths, people will look for easy excuses. The availability bias tells us that some will look to the removal of the airline mask mandate as the crack that the broke the dam. Even though the science won’t support this, this is an easy thing to point to, and something that many people will remember easily. The U.S. airline industry and its lobby groups should be prepared for this should it happen.

Flight Attendants Largely Happy About Not Policing Masks

I have taken 10 flights since the mandate was removed, and six since first writing about the effects of this. All six were in the last month, and again I spoke to every flight attendant on each flight. These included flights on Delta, American, and JetBlue. As I found in my first flights, there was universal support for the mandate removal from this non-random sample.

Flight attendants simply did not like being the mask police. They were forced into this role due to the mandate, and the result was a significant increase in onboard violence. The job of the flight attendant is stressful enough, and carries significant responsibility, and so this added disciplinary function caused some to re-think the career choice. While union leaders may still point to the health and safety benefits of onboard masking, most flight attendants would prefer things the way they are now.

Re-Introduction Of A Mandate Will Face Significant Resistance

Re-introducing a Federal mandate would come with a large thud and likely quicker legal action to fight it. Even though not everyone makes the right personal decisions, there is a cultural aversion to being told what do. This is why the mandate was never popular once the government made it, even though mandates by individual airlines, before the Federal mandate, were not met with great resistance. People seemed to say that it was okay for private companies to make rules they thought were right, especially because they could choose not to fly an airline with a mandate if they wanted.

If the CDC or other government agency feels compelled to re-introduce a travel mask mandate, they might best work with the industry to show why this likely has greater costs than benefits. It’s very possible that good policy would be to wear masks in larger gatherings, closed spaces, and more, but not in airplanes.

No Masks On Planes Doesn’t Mean No Masks Anywhere

I’ve noticed that the drop off of mask wearing on planes has not been matched by the same in other places, including grocery stores, churches, and public performances. Even when not required, roughly 30% of people are still choosing to wear masks in these settings based on what I have seen in the Washington, DC area.

This makes sense to me. As each person makes decisions that are safe for them, I can see why they would be more judicious about when and where to wear a mask. My wife had her antibodies tested at a recent physical, and her doctor said the test measured to a certain level of antibodies and she had more than that amount. In other words, her doctor said she could not be more protected, even though she’s never had Covid. Her doctor hypothesized that her body responded aggressively to the multiple shots and boosters she took. As more people learn of their own antibody support, this too may inform how important they consider mask wearing is for them.

Masks Likely To Be Common On Longer International Flights

On the one hand, wearing a mask for eight-plus hours is one of the things that has held back the full return of international travel. On the other hand, the longer the flight, the more risk people may feel being so close to other people. Add to this the variable and sometimes inconsistent mask requirements by different countries, and it seems likely that more people on long international flights will continue to wear a mask onboard.

I will test this theory later this month when I take my first international trip since March 2020. I am flying from New York to London, and while likely few if anyone will wear a mask on my connecting flight from DCA airport, I expect that, both in the boarding lounge and the plane, somewhere between 25% to 50% of the passengers will at least start the flight wearing a mask. This comports with my general view of how society is evolving to this virus and an endemic, versus pandemic, state. People will, for the most part, make decisions that make sense for their own health.