Fears of higher output, risk aversion test XNG/USD bulls at six-week top near $2.85

• Natural Gas Price prods four-day uptrend at the highest levels in 1.5 months.
• Hopes of more US energy demand due to hot weather, technical breakout previously fuelled XNG/USD price.
• Chatters about higher gas output join broad risk-off mood to weigh on commodity price ahead of China inflation.

Natural Gas Price (XNG/USD) pares recent gains around $2.83 as bulls await China inflation data on early Wednesday. In doing so, the XNG/USD prints the first daily loss in five amid mixed concerns about the demand and supply, as well as due to the risk-off mood.

That said, Reuters conveyed the news suggesting a notable increase in the Natural Gas demand in the US amid hot weather. The news quotes the data provider Refinitiv as it forecasts the US gas demand, including exports, to increase from 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 105.2 bcfd next week.

On the other hand, the gas supplies remain firmer around 102.1 bcfd in the US Lower 48 states after refreshing an all-time high of 102.2 bcfd in May.

Elsewhere, Italy’s surprise tax on windfall profits of banks joined the global rating agencies’ downward revision to the US banks and financial institutions to weigh on the risk sentiment and the Natural Gas price. On the same line could be fears of the UK recession and slowing economic growth in China.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red with major losses among the bank stocks whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields dropped to the weekly low of around 3.98% before bouncing off 4.03% by the day’s end. That said, S&P500 Futures remains mildly offered by the press time.

Looking forward, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for July will be crucial for intraday directions of the Natural Gas Price ahead of the weekly Natural Gas stockpiles and the key US inflation clues, up for publishing on Thursday.

Technical analysis

The latest pullback in the USD/MXN price remains elusive unless the quote stays beyond the previous resistance line stretched from June 26, close to $2.71 by the press time.