Fast Casual Chains’ Stock Slides As Customers Cut Spending

Topline

Younger consumers and households earning under $100,000 are cutting back on restaurant spending, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said this week, while noting a broader pullback across the industry, as shares of fast casual chains from Sweetgreen to Cava also continue to slide.

Key Facts

Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said households earning under $100,000—which make up roughly 40% of Chipotle’s total sales—are dining out less often, with 25-35 year olds hit hardest.

Chipotle shares have fallen 43.7% over the past year and 19.2% in October.

Similarly, fellow fast casual chains Cava and Sweetgreen have suffered: Cava stock has dropped 59.9% over the past year and 10.5% in October, hitting a 52-week low Friday, while Sweetgreen shares have also declined 82.8% over the past year and 21.5% over the past month.

Wingstop also struggled with shares down 26.1% over the past year and 13.9% in October.

Shake Shack stock is down 20.4% from a year ago, though rose 3.6% in October, following stronger quarterly results that showed 15.9% revenue growth and a swing back to profitability.

Key Background

Boatwright said the pressure facing Chipotle’s core customers reflects a broader industry trend, as rising unemployment, loan repayments, inflation, and slower wage growth weigh on diners’ budgets. The National Restaurant Association’s 2025 report echoes that concern, showing 40% of consumers have cut spending and another 41% are delaying purchases amid financial uncertainty. The report also found that 95% of restaurant operators said customers were increasingly value conscious than in previous years.

What To Watch For

Some traditional fast-food chains have also felt the squeeze but less sharply than the fast casual sector. Wendy’s has been the clear outlier, with shares plunging 55.9% over the past year following leadership turnover and a weak sales quarter earlier this year, per CNN. Restaurant Brands International – parent company to Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs – sustained a 5.5% decline, even as consolidated sales rose 6.9% year over year. McDonald’s has held relatively steady, gaining 1.3% this year, buoyed likely by strategic value meal promotions in early 2025 that drew back middle-income diners, though spending among lower-income diners remains soft, according to CNN. Meanwhile, Yum Brands which owns KFC, TacoBell and Pizza Hut is also up slightly by 4.5% this year, likely due to steady sales growth and a diversified global portfolio that has helped it navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment, according to Yahoo Finance. In early November, Wendy’s, McDonald’s, and Yum Brands will report third-quarter results, offering a clearer view of how the fast-food giants are performing.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinacastellanos/2025/10/31/fast-casual-chains-chipotle-cava-more-sound-alarm-on-drop-off-in-lower-income-customers/