Topline
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), a far-right Trump ally who’s come under fire for spreading conspiracy theories, pulled ahead of her Democratic opponent Adam Frisch by only 794 votes as a tranche of ballots came in Thursday afternoon, according to the Associated Press, putting the outspoken Trump ally on track to win her second term—although a recount could be coming.
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) tweeted Thursday “Winning!”
Key Facts
With 98% of ballots counted, Boebert leads Frisch for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District with 50.1% of the vote (159,029 to 158,235), according to the Associated Press, erasing Frisch’s slim lead, which had him up by just 64 votes Thursday morning.
Boebert, who made national news after rejecting Covid-19 mask mandates and spreading debunked theories, including Trump’s baseless claim over 2020 election fraud, had been “clearly favored” to win, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election model, which simulates the election 40,000 times—with Boebert winning in 97% of those simulations.
As of 4 a.m. Wednesday, the New York Times had also forecast Boebert to win, according to county-by-county data it uses to determine which candidate will likely take the remainder of the uncounted votes—the Cook Political Report ranks the district solidly Republican.
Colorado election law allows candidates to request a recount, and requires one if the difference in votes between the top two candidates is less than half of one percent of the number of ballots cast for the top vote-getter (the 433-vote difference puts that percentage at 0.2%, requiring a recount).
Neither Boebert or Frisch declared victory ahead of the official results, although at a campaign event Tuesday night, Boebert said “we will have this victory,” while Frisch attributed the close contest to his “calm belief that 40% of the Republican party wants their party back.”
Contra
A Boebert loss would be the latest blow to the so-called “red wave” that Republicans had hoped to give them control of Congress, following key GOP House losses in North Carolina, Ohio and Michigan, where Trump-backed John Gibbs fell to Democrat Hillary Scholten, as well as the hotly contested Pennsylvania Senate race, which Republican Mehmet Oz lost to Democrat John Fetterman, flipping the seat from red to blue.
Key Background
Boebert has come under fire since being elected to Congress on a fervently pro-MAGA platform in 2020, after she rejected Covid-era mask mandates at the Capitol building, claimed she can carry a gun inside the Capitol complex, made Islamophobic comments toward Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and spread Trump’s baseless theory that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him. Boebert, who previously owned a gun-themed restaurant called Shooters Grill—where wait staff was encouraged to carry a firearm—also faced pressure to resign after she tweeted information about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi while the Capitol was under siege during the January 6 riots. During the January State of the Union, she yelled at President Joe Biden as he was giving a speech on Afghanistan and Iraq veterans who have suffered from toxic exposure from military burn pits. She also spread the baseless theory that elementary schools are providing litter boxes for students that identify as cats and dress up as “furries,” saying “when we have a large portion of the population who can’t tell us what a woman is, there’s a crisis.” At a speech last month, she called for a “Christian takeover,” telling her supporters “you get to have a role in ushering in the second coming of Jesus”—she previously described the separation of church and state as “junk.”
What To Watch For
Three Senate races that could determine the balance of the chamber have not yet been called: Nevada, Arizona and Alaska, where Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) faces a challenge from Trump-backed far-right candidate Kelly Tshibaka. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Republican Herschel Walker’s hotly contested Senate race is headed to a December runoff after neither candidate surpassed 50% of the vote required to win. The chamber is currently split 48-48. In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has a 49.4%-47.6% lead over incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro (D) with 83% of ballots counted, while in Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is ahead of Republican Blake Masters 51.4% to 46.4% with 70% of the vote in.
Further Reading
In Colorado, Boebert trails her opponent by just a few dozen votes. (New York Times)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2022/11/10/far-right-boebert-pulls-ahead-of-long-shot-opponent-in-nail-biter/