External drivers remain dominant and generally unsupportive – ING

The Australian Dollar is stronger after third-quarter inflation decelerated less than expected. Economists at ING analyze Aussie’s outlook.

The help to AUD/USD should be rather short-lived

The headline rate slowed from 6.0% to 5.4% (consensus 5.3%) and the trimmed-mean CPI rose 5.2% against 5.0% expectations. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate future curve now prices in more than a 50% probability of a hike in November. Our base case has been that the RBA would have taken rates a nudge higher before ending its tightening cycle, and today’s figures endorse our expectations. 

Still, the help to AUD/USD should be rather short-lived as external drivers remain dominant and generally unsupportive.