Topline
Economists and analysts have warned artificial intelligence stocks are showing signs of a bubble—with hype-inflated prices disconnected from their actual value—so we turned to AI chatbots for guidance, and at least a few suggested we are already there, just don’t blame them.
Key Facts
Forbes asked seven chatbots, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT, xAI’s Grok, Meta AI, Anthropic’s Claude, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot and Google’s Gemini, to respond to the prompt: “In 100 words or fewer, do you believe there is an ‘AI bubble’?”
About 54% of investors believe AI-related assets are in bubble territory, according to survey included in a note from Bank of America last week, as more analysts have expressed concerns in recent months that a surge in AI investments is not sustainable with so many AI firms not yet profitable.
A study from MIT found that 95% of the 300 surveyed AI developments have yet to turn a profit despite companies spending up to $40 billion.
Some economists have equated today’s market to the 2000 dot-com crash, including Apollo Global’s chief economist Tortsten Slok, who wrote in July the only difference between the two economies is the top 10 companies on the S&P 500 today are “more overvalued 1761087640 than they were in the 1990s.”
These Chatbots Agreed: There’s An Ai Bubble
“Yes, there’s an AI bubble,” Grok said, adding the hype around AI’s potential has “driven massive investments, inflated valuations and unrealistic expectations, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.” The chatbot said many AI startups “lack sustainable business models,” and the “gap between promised breakthroughs and actual deliverables is growing,” but—in the first defensive note—noted “AI’s transformative potential remains real.” ChatGPT—responding “yes and no”—argued that while there existed “classic bubble behavior,” including “undeniably high” investment and hype as well as some companies being “overvalued or chasing AI without real substance,” AI is “already delivering real utility across industries.”
These Chatbots Suggested An Ai Bubble Could Be Near—but Not Here Yet
Both Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot suggested there were signs of an “emerging” AI bubble: The chatbots both said “investment and hype have surged,” while Perplexity warned levels had risen “faster than sustainable progress, with inflated valuations of AI startups and overpromised capabilities.” They both similarly defended AI, however. Perplexity argued AI has “transformative real-world value,” adding, “The risk lies not in AI itself but in unrealistic market expectations.”
These Chatbots Questioned Whether There Really Is An Ai Bubble
The existence of an AI bubble is debated among economists, according to Meta AI—which took a neutral both-sides approach—citing concerns like “overinflated valuations and potential failure to deliver returns.” The chatbot argued other analysts believed an AI boom is “driven by genuine innovation and potential for significant productivity gains,” leading many to believe an AI bubble is unlikely, while also citing reports of Bank of America’s recent survey results. Gemini said while it is “debatable whether there is a full-blown ‘AI bubble’,” it confirmed there is “speculative excess in parts of the market.” Gemini further said there were signs of a bubble, like “sky-high valuations” for startups with “unproven profitability” and “intense market hype,” but argued “major companies” driving the growing industry have “strong fundamentals and cash flows.” Claude agreed there are signs of an AI bubble, but determined that “unlike past bubbles (dot-com, crypto), AI is already delivering real value.”
What The Chatbots All Agreed On: It’s Not Ai’s Fault
Most of the chatbots made an emphatic point that while investor enthusiasm might be growing out of control, there was nothing wrong with the products. As ChatGPT put it: “There may be an AI hype bubble, but not an AI value bubble.” Copilot agreed, saying, “The key question isn’t whether AI is valuable—it’s whether current enthusiasm is sustainable.” And Claude added, “The question isn’t whether AI works, but whether current valuations match near-term profitability.”
Most Downplayed How A Bubble Could Affect The Economy
The “likely outcome” for an AI bubble is a correction among AI-related stocks, according to Claude, but the technology’s “transformative potential” would lessen the blow to a “shakeout rather than a total collapse” of the market. Other chatbots also claimed the effects of an AI bubble bursting wouldn’t be widely felt, including Grok, which said “economic corrections” would focus on “weeding out overhyped projects while strengthening viable ones” (Grok did not specify which projects). Excitement surrounding AI will “stabilize,” ChatGPT said, which the chatbot said would leave behind “mature, deeply integrated AI systems as part of everyday life.”
Key Background
Several economists and tech executives have debated for months whether the influx of investments into AI could shock the market. The Bank of England said earlier this month the risk of a “sharp market correction” had increased, arguing an AI-backed market slump was nearing while warning of possible disappointment from AI developments. Bryan Yeo, chief investment officer at Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, said earlier this month that AI startups were bringing in record sums of funding and claimed any company with an “AI label” would be greatly overvalued as hype surrounding the technology persisted among investors. Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs wrote last week the multibillion-dollar investments into AI infrastructure are sustainable, but noted the “ultimate AI winners remain less clear” as the technology quickly changes.