Evaluating Aleksej Pokusevski’s Future In OKC

When Aleksej Pokusevski was selected with the No. 17 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, it was no secret that he was going to be a project. The 7-footer was just over 200 pounds at the time and hadn’t yet turned 19 years old. Although his upside was tremendous, the unique prospect had just finished playing in a second-tier Greek league. He was set to embark on the next step in his basketball journey, making the leap to the NBA where he would need to get much stronger and play quality minutes to develop.

The first two years of Pokusevski’s career were up and down. He showed brilliant flashes of being a 7-footer with guard skills and two-way impact. Other times, the pace of play proved to be much to fast as he wasn’t able to process the game quickly enough. Fortunately for the Serbian forward, these first two seasons were amidst the Thunder kicking off a rebuild, meaning developmental minutes were plentiful while he also had the opportunity to make mistakes and learn from them in a low pressure environment. Pokusevski even had the chance to maximize his time on the court playing in the G League.

Entering the 2022-23 season, it appeared Pokusevski had turned a corner. This was extremely timely as he was set to be extension eligible in the Summer of 2023. As Oklahoma City continued to emerge as a team that had the chance to exceed expectations, he was a key piece of the rotation. In fact, Pokusevski was a primary starter for the majority of the first few months of the season. The game had slowed down for the 7-footer and he was playing nearly every position on the floor while also being extremely productive on both ends.

That momentum came to a halt for Pokusevski individually when he suffered a non-displaced tibial plateau fracture in his left leg just before the turn of the calendar year. At that point, he was averaging a career-high 8.8 points to go along with 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks through 31 games (25 starts).

While that wasn’t technically a season-ending injury, Pokusevski never found himself back in the regular late in the 2022-23 campaign when he returned. He was medically cleared in the final weeks of the season, but given he was still working his way back into shape he only played roughly 25 minutes over three games following his return.

Entering this summer, Pokusevski and his representation officially were able to start negotiating an extension. He’s set to make just over $5 million next season in the final year of his rookie scale deal before hitting restricted free agency in 2024, but Oklahoma City can get ahead of that and extend him. While his third season was derailed by injury, Pokusevski still had shown he has what it takes to be a long-term piece of the Thunder roster. Even ahead of next season, he was planning on playing for Serbia in the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup that kicks off in August as another opportunity to grow and develop.

However, those plans might now be off the table. Late last week, the Thunder announced that Pokusevski sustained a small right humerus fracture during an offseason workout in OKC and will be re-evaluated in early to mid July. In what will be another setback, the 7-footer will miss even more valuable development time. This doesn’t mean playing for his home country later this summer is off the table, but it certainly is an interesting wrinkle as practice and preparation will begin long before the event itself.

While this is the second significant injury Pokusevski has suffered in the past six months or so, he still has a bright future ahead of him. It could potentially alter extension talks, but even then that doesn’t mean his time in Oklahoma City is coming to an end. Whether the Thunder feels comfortable offering him an extension in the near future or decides wait until he hits restricted free agency, the expectation is that he’ll be ready to suit up at the start of the 2023-24 NBA season.

ProFitX currently values Pokusevski at roughly $8.2 million for the upcoming season. With that in mind, players are paid based on what they will be worth in the future, not just today. As such, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Pokusevski earn somewhere in the ballpark of $10 million per season on his next deal. What will be interesting is whether his next contract will be via extension or in restricted free agency. It’s always a timing game, as Pokusevski could end up increasing his value with spectacular play next season, or decline his value if he can’t stay healthy or doesn’t take another step forward.

Nonetheless, the Aleksej Pokusevski project has been positive to this point as he just scratches the surface of his potential. It’s hard to find 7-footers that play with his fluidity. He’s one of the more versatile players on the Thunder roster with his ability to play anything from point guard to center. The next steps in his NBA journey will be fascinating to follow and will be a key storyline as the Thunder continues to emerge as one of the quickest rising teams in the NBA.