European Gas gains on fading peace hopes and Norway risks – ING

Fading optimism over a Russia-Ukraine peace is providing support for European Gas prices, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Overall storage remains 5.8% above the 5-year average

“At the same time, concerns over flows to Europe amid upcoming Norwegian maintenance will also provide support to the market. Front-month Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures managed to settle more than 8% higher over the week. EU Gas storage is close to 76% full, below the 91% seen at the same stage last year and lower than the 83% 5-year average.”

“US natural Gas has been more bearish, with Henry Hub down 7.5% over the last week and settling at its lowest level since October 2024. This is despite last week’s storage build coming in below average. However, overall storage remains 5.8% above the 5-year average, while we are moving towards a period where we expect to see reduced cooling demand. This is allowing for larger storage builds ahead of the 2025/2026 winter.”