Europe won’t be breathing a sigh of relief – ING

That Europe was not mentioned in Trump’s first tariff post could perhaps be welcome news on the Continent, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

ECB speakers to shed some light on December

“Yet local policymakers will remain fearful that it will just be a matter of time before Trump turns his attention to the European auto sector or tariffs more broadly. In any case, the threat of further tariffs on China shows the direction of travel on world trade, which is bearish for the EUR.”

“The eurozone data calendar is pretty light today, but there are several ECB speakers. So far the market is split on whether the ECB cuts by 25bp or 50bp on 12 December. Our team slightly favours 50bp, but it is a very close call. EUR/USD can probably spend some more time consolidating in a 1.0450-1.0550 range, but the direction of travel is lower.”

“Elsewhere, look out for Riksbank speakers today. They are discussing neutral interest rates in Sweden. The market currently prices another 100bp of cuts in the policy rate (now at 2.75%). This, plus weak European growth and declining world trade, create a difficult environment for the Swedish krona.”