Euro eyes peace-talk signals as key Driver – ING

Euro (EUR) trading remains driven by Russia-Ukraine peace-talk progress, with today’s Witkoff–Putin meeting seen as pivotal. Softer eurozone CPI is unlikely to shift ECB expectations, leaving EUR/USD positioned to retest 1.1700 should the US Dollar (USD) ease, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Witkoff–Putin meeting in focus for EUR sentiment

“Developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain the most relevant topic for the euro this week. As US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff meets with President Putin today, we should gain a clearer sense of how close we are to any agreement.”

“On the macro side, today’s CPI shouldn’t move the needle dramatically for ECB rate expectations. However, we expect this flash November estimate to show headline CPI slowing from 2.1% to 2.0% and core from 2.4% to 2.3%, which are both 0.1 percentage points below consensus.”

“If anything, the risks are slightly on the downside for the euro, but our expectation is for a neutral FX impact nonetheless and EUR/USD can eye 1.1700 again soon if USD drops in line with our call.”