EUR/USD might rise gradually and test 1.1680 – UOB Group

Euro (EUR) could rise gradually and test 1.1680; a continued rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, weakness from early last week has stabilised; EUR is likely to trade between 1.1575 and 1.1720 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Weakness from early last week has stabilised

24-HOUR VIEW: “While we indicated yesterday that EUR ‘could rise,’ we pointed out that ‘given that there is no significant increase in momentum, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.1575/1.1635.’ The subsequent price movements did not quite turn out as expected, as USD edged higher within a range of 1.1600/1.1647. EUR could rise gradually and test 1.1680 today. Given that there is still no significant increase in upward momentum, we do not expect a continued rise above this level. The major resistance at 1.1720 is also not expected to come into view. Support is at 1.1630; a breach of 1.1610 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative on EUR early last week. In our most recent narrative from Monday (13 Oct, spot at 1.1610), we noted that ‘downward momentum is slowing, and the likelihood of EUR reaching 1.1490 during this phase of weakness is decreasing.’ Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘downward momentum continues to slow, and unless EUR breaks and holds below 1.1540 soon, a breach of 1.1645 will not be surprising and would indicate that the weakness has stabilised.’ EUR subsequently rose above 1.1645, reaching a high of 1.1647. The price action suggests that the weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilised. We are neutral on EUR for now and expect it to trade between 1.1575 and 1.1720.”