The EUR/USD price held steady on Tuesday morning as investors waited for the upcoming Eurozone GDP data. The pair is trading at 1.1320, which is slightly above Monday’s low of 1.1280.
EU GDP data
The Eurozone economy did well in the fourth quarter even as the Omicron variant spread in most countries. Most of the economic growth was seen in countries like Spain, Italy, and France. Germany, the biggest economy in the region is expected to have retreated sharply in Q4.
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Eurostat, the region’s statistics agency, will publish the second estimate of Q4 GDP data on Tuesday. Analysts expect the data to show that bloc’s economy expanded by 4.6% in the quarter after it contracted in Q3. On a month-on-month basis, they expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 0.3%.
Eurostat will also publish the quarterly employment change in the Eurozone and trade balance. Recent data from the region showed that the overall unemployment rate declined to 7% in January, the lowest level on record.
The EUR/USD pait will also react to the latest German ZEW economic sentiment numbers for February. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the data to show that sentiment improved from 51.7 to 55.0 in February. They also see the current conditions improving to about -6.0.
These numbers will come at a time when the region faces significant risks as the West and Russia crisis continues. Later today, Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, will travel to Russia to meet with Putin. He is expected to ask the president to give dialogue a chance and warn about the impact of sanctions on the German economy.
EUR/USD forecast
Turning to the four-hour chart, we see that the EUR/USD pair found a strong resistance at 1.1485. It struggled to move above this level this month and in January.
The pair has moved below the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the Stochastic Oscillator has started pointing higher.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will bounce back ahead and after the Scholz and Putin meeting. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be at 1.1370.
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Source: https://invezz.com/news/2022/02/15/eur-usd-forecast-ahead-of-scholz-and-putin-meeting-on-ukraine/