EUR rebounds from post-Fed low – Scotiabank

EUR/USD has climbed steadily through the overnight session to regain yesterday’s post-Fed peak against the USD, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR to retest upper 1.11s

“EUR gains are supported by narrowing yield spreads (EZ/US 2Y gap at –133bps today, the narrowest since May last year).”

“Narrower spreads suggest the EUR will remain well-supported on moderate dips and retain a firm tone against the USD for now. Fundamental challenges are creeping up on the EUR, however. The Bundesbank’s monthly report noted today that Germany may already be in a mild recession. A ‘broad-based, long-lasting slump’ was not expected, however.”

“Solid spot gains from the overnight low leave EURUSD trading close to yesterday’s peak and—despite the intraday chop yesterday—sustaining the bullish break out of the EUR August/September consolidation (bull flag). A push through minor resistance at 1.12 (August high) targets gains to 1.1275 (retracement and 2023 high). Support is 1.1120.”