EUR/JPY struggles near mid-155.00s, lowest since August ahead of BoJ meeting this week

• EUR/JPY drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to over a one-month low.
• Hawkish BoJ expectations continue to underpin the JPY and exert downward pressure.
• The Euro draws support from a weaker USD and should limit losses ahead of the BoJ. 

The EUR/JPY cross attracts sellers for the second straight day on Monday and drops to its lowest level since early August, below mid-155.00s during the Asian session. The downtick is sponsored by the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), though lacks follow-through buying ahead of the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting later this week. 

The recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials suggested that the central bank will raise interest rates further by the end of this year, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the JPY and exerting pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. In fact, BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said earlier last week that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation move in line with its forecasts. Furthermore, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said last Thursday that the central bank must push up short-term rates to at least around 1% through fiscal 2026 to stably achieve the 2% inflation target.

This marks a big divergence in comparison to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision last week to cut interest rates for the second time this cycle and indicates a declining path for borrowing costs in the months ahead. This is seen as another factor behind the shared currency’s relative underperformance and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the EUR/JPY cross. That said, reports that the ECB  policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, barring a major deterioration in the outlook for growth, along with sustained US Dollar (USD), assist the Euro in gaining some positive traction.

Apart from this, a generally positive tone across the global equity markets keeps a lid on any further appreciation for the safe-haven JPY and should cap the upside for the EUR/JPY cross. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk – the highly-anticipated BoJ policy decision on Friday. The key focus will be on the BoJ’s policy outlook, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term JPY price dynamics and help market participants in determining the next leg of a directional move for the currency.