EUR capped again at 1.12 – Scotiabank

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised up in September to 45.0 (from 44.8) after Spain reported a solid gain and German and French data were nudged up marginally from preliminary reports, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Soft EZ inflation bolster October ECB cut bets

“Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised up in September to 45.0 (from 44.8). But generally soft activity data and weaker than forecast Eurozone CPI today (-0.1% M/M for September) are bolstering expectations that the ECB will cut rates again this month, with 23bps of easing now priced into swaps.”

“Wider EZ/US spreads (2Y bond spreads have widened 20bps since September 18th) have undercut the EUR and reinforced the ceiling on the EUR around the 1.12 area for now.”

“Another strong rejection of the 1.12 area this week leaves the EUR looking prone to a little more weakness at least in the short run. A weak close for the EUR yesterday (bearish outside range session) signals a firm top on the EUR on the daily chart. A push back to the lower end of the recent range to 1.10 (and major support) is likely to develop in the short run.”