Ethena Price Analysis: ENA Flashes Bullish Signal – Here are Key Levels to Watch

Ethena is sitting on a make-or-break point following relentless selling in the last few weeks, and the question now is whether it’s time to turn up finally or if there are legs remaining to the downmove.

At the moment, ENA price is trading around $0.541, holding on to support levels that have been tested before. Looking across price charts and on-chain data, the picture is mixed: there are signs of exhaustion from sellers, but also plenty of risk if support gives way.

ENA on-chain activity and market dynamics

On-chain data gives another layer of context. Glassnode shows transfer volume peaking above $300 million during one of ENA’s busiest days, with price hovering around $0.60-$0.65 at the time. 

Since then, transfer activity has come in waves, spiking above $200 million and then drying up to below $50 million. Ethena price has mirrored these bursts, bouncing toward $0.62-$0.64 during active periods, but struggling to hold gains.

Ethena’s market cap numbers also follow this rhythm. ENA’s cap started around $4.15 billion, dipped close to $3.9 billion, then bounced above $4.1 billion before slipping again. Each rebound has formed a lower high, which mirrors the weakening price structure.

Network activity shows the same cycle. Active addresses spiked to almost 2,000, dropped below 1,100, and currently sit in the 1,200-1,250 range. That behavior illustrates retail and speculative pushes but not natural growth over time. Without consistent user engagement, price rallies have lacked staying power.

Ethena price structure and trend shifts

ENA topped out between $0.86 and $0.92 before rolling over into a sharp decline. A long descending trendline has kept rallies capped ever since. 

On the 4-hour chart, ENA price is still trading well below the 200-period SMA near $0.6788, which now acts as heavy resistance.

Break of Structure (BOS) signals confirmed those momentum shifts. The first bullish BOS marked ENA’s climb in July, but a later bearish BOS appeared when price broke the mid-range. Since then, lower highs and lower lows have dominated.

On the daily view, the pattern looks the same. After spending much of the year trending lower, ENA price finally settled out in the mid-$0.50 range before running above $0.80 in July. 

ENA daily chart. Source: Tradingview

That rally has now pulled back toward the rising trendline from July and the 100-day SMA near $0.56. Both are being tested now, and they could decide whether ENA stabilizes or slides further.

Right now, ENA trades inside a support band around $0.505-$0.560, an area where buyers have stepped in before. The current price of $0.5412 sits on the top of that range. If this floor breaks, the next levels to watch sit near $0.471 and even $0.362 on Fibonacci retracements.

On the positive side, the first obstacle is the $0.590-$0.615 area, which also represents the downtrend line. A strong break above that would put a test of the 200-SMA in play at $0.6788. Breaching that would be the initial one to indicate that buying momentum is gathering steam, and potential to move upward into the $0.70-$0.72 region.

Broadly, though, the $0.80-$1.00 level remains the high which has broken each bigger rally this year. Until ENA can reclaim that area, the broader trend remains under pressure.

The Fibonacci retracement lays out a clear map. Right now, ENA price is sitting on the 0.500 level at $0.548, which is the textbook halfway point of the move. If it loses this zone, the 0.618 level at $0.471 comes next. Below that, the 0.786 near $0.362 would be the deeper support.

ENA 4hr chart. Source: Tradingview

Momentum indicators are flashing mixed signals. On the 4-hour chart, RSI sits at 31.5, which is oversold. There’s also a bullish divergence showing, with RSI climbing while price keeps making equal or lower lows. That usually hints at a relief rally, but confirmation would require a push back over the $0.59-$0.61 range.

In the daily chart, RSI is at about 34, which is also an oversold level. Previously, these readings have been accompanied by sharp bounces.

Still, the bearish divergences spotted in August called this pullback early, so traders are cautious about reading too much into momentum without structural confirmation.

ENA price scenarios and analyst outlook

Prominent analyst Altcoin Sherpa summed it up in a recent tweet, saying, “Most coins continue to grind a bit lower in the mid term and then have a consolidation period. Coins like $ENA likely go lower imo (though could see a potential bounce soon since this region is support).” 

That’s the view that makes sense on the chart: support can bounce, but the overall picture is bearish at least until $0.63 is regained.

Also still the same view for me, most coins continue to grind a bit lower in the mid term and then have a consolidation period. Coins like $ENA likely go lower imo (though could see a potential bounce soon since this region is support) https://t.co/yuugdYUywV pic.twitter.com/vPnWjdTRXK

— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) September 30, 2025

In the bullish scenario, ENA holds $0.505-$0.560, retakes $0.59-$0.61, and breaks out of the downtrendline. That would set up for a test of $0.64-$0.68, with $0.70 in contention if momentum keeps going.

In the neutral scenario, ENA price continues to move sideways between $0.54 and $0.61 with neither sellers nor buyers taking charge.

In the bearish scenario, ENA closes a day below $0.54, opening the door to $0.471. If sellers press harder and volume increases, the next stop could be $0.362.

What to watch next for Ethena

Ethena is now at a crucial spot, trading near $0.5412 at the 50% retracement level. Support around $0.505-$0.560 is the battleground for the next move. 

If it holds, buyers could stage a recovery toward $0.64-$0.68. If it breaks, sellers could push ENA’s price down toward $0.471 or lower.

On-chain statistics reveal a mixed story of spike-trading and network utilization without the growth trend continuing. 

That leaves Ethena price bouncy in the range of $0.55 and $0.62 as traders wait with bated breath for a decisive break. Until bulls retake higher grounds, ENA’s bigger trend continues to be to the downside.