Empty end of the week, market preparing for central banks – ING

The last day of the week should be quiet with an empty calendar in the CEE region. However, the FX market has a lot to absorb, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.

Markets are bullish ahead of central bank events

“Overall, we remain bullish on the CEE region, just like at the start of the week. The most attractive at the moment seems to be Hungary’s forint, which in the rates market repriced up significantly for no visible reason, while EUR rates fell slightly. Thus, at the end of the day, the interest rate differential moved to the highest level in weeks, adding support to FX.”

“Moreover, EUR/USD is still testing higher levels favouring CEE currencies in general. Thus, we think EUR/HUF should move into the 392-393 range by Tuesday’s National Bank of Hungary meeting, supporting a 25bp rate cut, which is our economist’s call.”

“Another currency preparing for next week’s central bank meeting is the Czech koruna, which has been enjoying stronger values in recent days and is slowly approaching 25.00 per euro. As we mentioned earlier, the market pricing is still on the very dovish side, but given the core story, it makes no sense to go against the received market.”