New York Yankees’ Ryan McMahon (19) celebrates with Aaron Judge after hitting a solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the third inning of Game 4 of baseball’s American League Division Series, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)
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It’s time for my annual batted ball-based year-end team true-talent rankings —here’s a quick refresher on the methodology.
In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” are applied to each team’s population of batted balls, both for and against, to derive the production they “should have” achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.
Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs’ performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.
In 2020, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.
To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Six clubs were subjected to this penalty, twice as many as in 2022-24, and more in line with 2021 (six) and 2020 (seven).
Think of this as an ordered listing of a team’s raw materials – and some teams do more with those than others, thanks to a team’s connective tissue, not to mention good old-fashioned luck. We looked at the bottom half of the rankings yesterday. Here we go with the top half:
15. Texas Rangers (Actual Record = 81-81, Projected Record = 83-79)
Offensive Rating = 97.2 (18th), Pitching Rating = 98.3 (15th), Defensive Rating = 96.2 (8th); 2025 All-Star Break = 13th
The Rangers are like the Reds (though not as extreme a case), a solid run prevention team that struggles with the bat. Those traits were magnified by their pitcher-friendly home park, Globe Life Field. From a batted ball perspective, you can’t get much more average than these guys – 91.2 mph average fly ball exit speed, both for and against. 93.9 mph average liner exit speed for, 93.8 mph against. Batted ball totals comparable across all batted ball types, except for an undesirable +75 in pop ups. Team defense was quite good, with 2B Marcus Semien, SS Corey Seager and 3B Josh Jung keying the infield (93.0 grounder multiplier) and Wyatt Langford leading the outfield (88.8 fly ball multiplier).
14. Atlanta Braves (Actual Record = 76-86, Projected Record = 84-78)
Offensive Rating = 104.3 (7th), Pitching Rating = 100.2 (19th), Defensive Rating = 100.1 (18th); 2025 All-Star Break = 10th
The Braves underperformed their projected record by eight games, tied for the third largest such differential this season. Arguably no team was hammered more by injuries. Their offense still held up quite well – only two NL clubs hit their fly balls harder, only one hit their liners and grounders harder. Their advantages over their opposition essentially disappeared with the loss of ace starters Spencer Schwellenbach and Chris Sale for extended periods of time, causing their overall pitching ranking to plunge from 10th at the All Star break.
13. Seattle Mariners (Actual Record = 90-72, Projected Record = 85-77)
Offensive Rating = 101.6 (11th), Pitching Rating = 98.2 (14th), Defensive Rating = 97.9 (11th); 2025 All-Star Break = 15th
It might be surprising to see the M’s ranked this low – out of a playoff spot – given their run to within eight outs of the World Series. They would have been the last team out of the postseason according to this method. This club has been built upon a foundation of starting pitching, but truth be told, their shortcomings in that area keyed their eventual demise. While their pitching ranking did rise from 23rd at the All Star break, injuries and ineffectiveness cropped up all year. Their inability to get even five innings from their starters in the postseason proved to be their undoing. Only four MLB teams allowed a higher average exit velocity than their 89.2 mph mark.
12. Tampa Bay Rays (Actual Record = 77-85, Projected Record = 86-76)
Offensive Rating = 94.8 (25th), Pitching Rating = 93.2 (7th), Defensive Rating = 95.7 (6th); 2025 All-Star Break = 8th
And it likely surprises you to see the Rays this high, the third wild card according to this method. The nine-game difference between their actual and projected records is the second largest in MLB, behind only the Guardians’ amazing 18-game spread. They’re another low-offense, strong run prevention club in the Reds’ mold, though that status was obscured a bit by their hitter-friendly temporary home park. Interestingly, only one club allowed harder contact authority than the Rays’ 89.4 mph average exit speed allowed. Their staff limited the damage with a strong K/BB foundation, the third fewest fly balls and the fewest liners allowed. Team defense was also an asset, with an AL-best 81.0 grounder multiplier, led by SS Taylor Walls and since-departed UT Jose Caballero.
11. Houston Astros (Actual Record = 87-75, Projected Record = 88-74)
Offensive Rating = 96.6 (20th), Pitching Rating = 91.7 (3rd), Defensive Rating = 96.9 (9th); 2025 All-Star Break = 2nd
The Astros and the next team below had the two steepest second half dropoffs on the top half of the list – these guys were the 2nd best team in baseball at the All Star break. They’re yet another offensively-challenged club with strong pitching and defense – their staff ranked #1 at the break. Making contact at the plate has long been a driver of their success – they whiffed 203 fewer times than their opponents (their staff led the AL in Ks) and put 276 more balls in play – but those numbers are well down from their peak seasons. Their 87.8 mph average offensive exit speed was third worst in baseball, and they were outhomered by 17 as a result. Team defense was strong, especially in the infield, where SS Jeremy Pena and UT Mauricio Dubon keyed a 87.8 grounder multiplier. They, instead of the Mariners, should have been a playoff club according to this method.
10. Detroit Tigers (Actual Record = 87-75, Projected Record = 88-74)
Offensive Rating = 100.7 (14th), Pitching Rating = 96.2 (10th), Defensive Rating = 96.0 (7th); 2025 All-Star Break = 4th
The Tigers plummeted from a ranking of 4th overall at the All Star break, but broke their fall just in time to salvage a playoff spot. They’re the 4th of the six clubs, and first today, to be assessed an extrene grounder-pulling penalty. It’s a power-before-hit offense, taking advantage of recent reconfiguration of Comerica Park. They’re joined by the Dodgers and Cubs as the only teams to hit more fly balls than ground balls. They did strike out 79 more times than their opponents, and put 53 fewer balls in play, though they easily out fly ball-ed and line drive-ed their opponents. Team defense was strong, with Dillon Dingler excelling behind the plate and everyone but Riley Greene contributing to an AL-best 87.0 fly ball multiplier in the outfield.
9. New York Mets (Actual Record = 83-79, Projected Record = 88-74)
Offensive Rating = 114.7 (2nd), Pitching Rating = 99.0 (17th), Defensive Rating = 105.8 (28th); 2025 All-Star Break = 9th
They were the last team out of the NL playoffs, this method says they should have been the last team in. Unlike some of the teams above, this is a bat-first team that was ultimately undone by its run prevention shortcomings. Only the Yankees had a higher average offensive exit speed than the Mets’ 90.2 mph. They hit a whopping 75 more homers than they allowed, again second to the Yankees. Unfortunately, their net K/BB profile was fairly neutral, and they only put 76 more balls in play than their opponents (and were +90 in pop ups). Their team defense was quite poor, particularly in the infield where 1B Pete Alonso drove a 114.3 grounder multiplier
8. Boston Red Sox (Actual Record = 89-73, Projected Record = 89-73)
Offensive Rating = 101.9 (10th), Pitching Rating = 99.9 (18th), Defensive Rating = 92.2 (1st); 2025 All-Star Break = 7th
Things might have ended differently for this group if rookie Roman Anthony wasn’t sidelined by injury down the stretch. It’s a pretty well-rounded club, without a material weakness. Its +1.5 mph exit speed differential was second best in the majors, behind only the Yankees. They were optimally built for their home field, Fenway Park, out-doubling their opponents by an amazing 110. They also out-tripled their opponents by 24-9. My defense method emphasizes making plays over error avoidance, and the Red Sox shine sccordingly, with CF Ceddanne Rafaela – perhaps the game’s single best defender – keying 88.1 fly ball and 89.4 line drive (MLB-best) multipliers.
7. Toronto Blue Jays (Actual Record = 94-68, Projected Record = 89-73)
Offensive Rating = 112.3 (4th), Pitching Rating = 101.6 (21st), Defensive Rating = 99.8 (6th); 2025 All-Star Break = 11th
Let’s give the AL champs their roses. Their offense is great, and gets it done in a unique way for this day and age – by putting the bat on the baseball. Only the Royals (by three) struck out less than the Jays, who whiffed 331 fewer times than their opponents and put 422 more balls in play. Despite the best efforts of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., however, the club’s average exit speed of 88.5 mph was well below league average. They out-singled their opponents by 121, out-doubled them by 40, but were out-homered by 18. They’re the only team in the top 13 to have a below average pitching staff – of course that barely includes Trey Yesavage, who hopes to continue to be a difference-maker in the World Series.
6. San Diego Padres (Actual Record = 90-72, Projected Record = 90-72)
Offensive Rating = 101.5 (12th), Pitching Rating = 95.7 (9th), Defensive Rating = 94.0 (3rd); 2025 All-Star Break = 14th
The Padres’ eight-spot jump since the All Star break is the second largest behind the next club below. Like the Royals, the essence of this club is obscured by the pitcher-friendly nature of their home park. This isn’t a bad offensive club, and it gets it done much like the Blue Jays. 264 fewer strikeouts than their opponents, and 404 more balls put in play. Their offensive team average exit speed is even worse than the Jays – only three teams posted a lower mark than their 88.0 mph. Like the Jays, they were out-homered (by 26), while significantly out-singling (by 145) and out-doubling (by 51) their opponents. Team defense was strong all over the field – they do have ex-shortstops everywhere – with SS Xander Bogaerts anchoring the infield and RF Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the outfield.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (Actual Record = 97-65, Projected Record = 91-71)
Offensive Rating = 96.6 (21st), Pitching Rating = 91.0 (2nd), Defensive Rating = 93.7 (2nd); 2025 All-Star Break = 17th
Yup, the Brew Crew jumps 12 spots since the All Star break to finish here. They took this whole offensive-challenged with great run prevention thing to a laughable extreme. Their 87.6 mph average offensive exit speed was the LOWEST in baseball. They did compensate a bit by whiffing 166 fewer times and putting 316 more balls in play (including a +103 liner differential), as well as limiting their opposition to the second lowest average exit speed allowed (88.2 mph). Team defense is their calling card – their 78.6 grounder multiplier was the best in the game, led by the stellar work of SS Joey Ortiz. Ultimately, the late-season injury to Brandon Woodruff curbed their momentum and left them a pitcher short in the postseason.
4. Chicago Cubs (Actual Record = 92-70, Projected Record = 93-69)
Offensive Rating = 107.6 (6th), Pitching Rating = 98.2 (13th), Defensive Rating = 94.1 (4th); 2025 All-Star Break = 5th
Their postseason series confirmed that the Brewers and Cubs are indeed separated by a razor’s edge. This is our fifth and next to last club assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty. They mirror the Tiger offense in that aspect and in another – both clubs hit more fly balls than grounders. The Cubs walked 149 more times than their opponents, and though they put only 103 more balls in play, they were +125 and +62 in the key fly ball and line drive categories. Like the Brewers, they’re a superb defensive club, particularly in the outfield, where CF Pete Crow-Armstrong keyed an NL-best 87.9 fly ball multiplier.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (Actual Record = 96-66, Projected Record = 95-67)
Offensive Rating = 107.6 (5th), Pitching Rating = 87.3 (1st), Defensive Rating = 102.9 (23rd); 2025 All-Star Break = 3rd
As luck would have it, the #2 and #3 teams on this list had to face each other in the divisional round. To this point, the Phils are the only club that has given the Dodgers a tussle. It all starts with a huge K/BB profile advantage here – the Phils walked 93 more and whiffed 134 fewer times than their opposition, and put 170 more balls in play. That said, their edges in those areas ebbed after the injury to staff ace Zack Wheeler. No club limited their opponents to a lower average exit speed than the Phils’ 88.1 mph, though the departure of Wheeler almost cost them that honor. Team defense was their only blemish – their 104.7 grounder multiplier was their weak spot, with the work of 1B Bryce Harper and 3B Otto Kemp (in a small sample) most to blame.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Actual Record = 93-69, Projected Record = 96-66)
Offensive Rating = 112.8 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 91.9 (4th), Defensive Rating = 100.6 (19th); 2025 All-Star Break = 6th
The Dodgers traveled a crazy road to arrive at this #2 overall ranking. At the All Star break, their pitching ranked a middling 14th. With the gradual return to health of stalwarts Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow – who combined for under 200 innings this season – and the ongoing excellence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they shot up the charts down the stretch. They followed the Cubs and Tigers’ path of hitting more fly balls than grounders, and their staff’s MLB-leading 1505 Ks enabled them to post a +152 whiff differential and put 252 more balls into play than their opponents. They concentrated those edges in the most important areas, with +245 fly ball and +46 liner differentials. Their +69 homer differential was MLB’s third best.
1. New York Yankees (Actual Record = 94-68, Projected Record = 101-61)
Offensive Rating = 118.6 (1st), Pitching Rating = 93.1 (6th), Defensive Rating = 98.5 (13th); 2025 All-Star Break = 1st
Well at least the Yanks won something. Honestly, this shouldn’t be surprising. Their offense deservedly gets the headlines – Aaron Judge was an absolute monster, and Cal Raleigh notwithstanding, easily deserves the AL MVP award. Their 90.4 mph team offensive average exit speed was MLB’s best, as was their +1.9 mph team launch angle and +99 homer differentials. There are minor weaknesses here. They’re our sixth and final club to be assessed an extreme grounder-pulling penalty. They barely put more balls in play than their opponents (+48), while most other top clubs did so by a significantly higher margin. Their team defense sits squarely in the league average range. And their greatness was pretty much confined to a small number of players, namely Judge and top starters Max Fried and Carlos Rodon – their supporting cast was relatively ordinary.