Efficient Athleticism Defines Trea Turner’s Success Over Past 2 Seasons

Free agent shortstop Trea Turner received a one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer from his former ball club, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Turner had avoided arbitration in his final year of eligibility and earned $21 million last season on a one-year contract according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The two-time National League All-Star will likely decline the qualifying offer prior to the November 15^th 4:00 PM ET deadline as he is widely considered to be one of the most attractive free agents on the market this offseason. Turner is seeking a long-term contract with offers likely to begin at $250 million and potentially eclipse $300 million in value.

The Dodgers will receive a 2023 draft pick as compensation if Turner declines the qualifying offer and signs with another ball club. Since they are projected to surpass the 2022 Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $230 million, the Dodgers’ compensation pick will occur after the completion of the fourth round according to the collective bargaining agreement. In a September report from the Associated Press, the Dodgers’ 2022 payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes could be as much as $289.96 million accompanied by a second time payor penalty of approximately $29.4 million.

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A former first-round selection (13^th overall) of the San Diego Padres in Major League Baseball’s 2014 first-year player draft from North Carolina State University, Turner uniquely blends contact and speed with power. A client of Creative Artists Agency (CAA), Front Office Sports reported on Twitter that a highlight reel narrated by actor Jon Hamm was circulating throughout Major League Baseball prior to the outset of free agency. The two minute video promoted Turner as a fun, multitalented superstar who is a great teammate and adored by fans. Besides emphasizing three carefully selected statistics that could be subjected to a myriad of interpretations, the video sells Turner as a centerpiece on a winning ball club whose body type aligns with durability and longevity. The phrase, “efficient athleticism,” was used to describe his smooth and effortless style of play.

In parts of seven seasons with the Washington Nationals, Turner enjoyed success and was a 2019 world champion during his age 26 season. A July 2021 trade to the Dodgers along with right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer provided Turner with an opportunity to showcase his talents while playing for a highly successful ball club at a pivotal time in his career. Turner’s attractiveness and marketability as a free agent are a byproduct of his accomplishments over the past two seasons. A ball player who exudes excitement, Turner has developed into an elite ball player and one of the best overall shortstops in baseball.

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According to FanGraphs’ calculation of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Turner has posted a 13.1 WAR over the past two seasons. Only free agent outfielder Aaron Judge’s 16.9 WAR is higher than Turner’s during this period. Over the course of the 2021-2022 seasons, Turner led Major League Baseball in hits (389) and singles (260) while scoring the eighth most runs in the sport (208) along with the fourth most stolen bases (59). Turner was tied for second in Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) with a .352 BABIP alongside Texas Rangers first baseman Nathaniel Lowe according to FanGraphs. Along with achieving 100 runs batted in for the first time in his career in 2022, Turner also scored 101 runs in the same season.

Thanks to data collected from Baseball-Reference’s Stathead, there have been two ball players over the past two seasons who have achieved at least 100 runs, 190 hits, 25 stolen bases, and 300 total bases in one season. Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette achieved this feat in 2021 while Turner accomplished it in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In 2021, Turner won the National League batting title with a .328 batting average which was also the best in Major League Baseball. He also led the sport in hits (195) while sitting atop the National League’s leaderboards in stolen bases (32) and total bases (319). In 2022, Turner won his first Silver Slugger Award at shortstop for the National League which represents the best offensive ball players at each position.

Next season, a seismic shift will occur in baseball as new rules will be implemented regarding limits to defensive shifts, pitch timers, and bigger bases. A question of concern that ball clubs are considering when it comes to evaluating free agents is how the new rules will affect their styles of play. In Turner’s case, he will likely benefit from the changes as he has finished in the National League’s top five in stolen bases in each of the past seven seasons and leading the league on two occasions (2018, 2021). According to the press release announcing the changes, the bases are being enlarged from 15 inches square to 18 inches square which also means the distance between the bases is changing as well. There will be a 4.5 inch reduction in the distance between first base and second base and second base and third base.

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The two pickoff attempts or step offs per plate appearance will likely encourage ball players such as Turner to be even more aggressive on the base paths and wreak havoc on pitchers adjusting to the new rules. Turner won’t be affected by the limits on defensive shifts thanks to data provided by Baseball Savant. In 2022, Turner made 707 plate appearances and only in 10 plate appearances (1.4 percent) did he encounter a defensive shift. In 2021, Turner confronted a defensive shift in 53 plate appearances (8.2 percent) out of a possible 643 plate appearances.

Turner’s defense at shortstop will be carefully examined due to the number of outstanding options available at the position this offseason. Advanced metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Outs Above Average (OAA), and Runs Prevented are significant indicators of defensive performance. Given new data from Baseball Savant regarding arm strength, Turner has been below league average at the shortstop position since tracking began with the 2020 season. Over the 2020-2022 seasons, Turner has made 1,297 shortstop throws at an average of 83.2 miles per hour with the league average across the three seasons being 85.3 miles per hour. Turner has never won or has been a finalist for a Gold Glove Award in the National League as his signature defensive season had occurred in 2018 with an 8 DRS, 3.2 UZR, 12 OAA, and 9 Runs Prevented over 1,401 innings at shortstop.

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Trea Turner’s vast talents perfectly align with several championship caliber ball clubs in large markets. A reunion with the Los Angeles Dodgers is always likely but expect to see constant fluctuations in the shortstop free agent market given the depth of talent as well as who will win the Aaron Judge sweepstakes. Don’t be surprised to see 10 ball clubs express sincere interest in Turner. Rumors involving an east coast preference might have put the Philadelphia Phillies at the forefront of recent conversations regarding Turner’s next steps, but a lot can change thanks to the presence of Judge’s free agency. Turner can either be a ball club’s centerpiece or missing piece in their pursuit of World Series glory.